AbbVie's Skyrizi and Rinvoq growth is real, but at 20 times this year's earnings the stock already pays for it. I expect roughly a 5% gain to $287, so the stock tracks the market.
Key points
- 10.2% revenue growth in the June 2026 quarter, with Skyrizi and Rinvoq each up about 24%.
- $13.86 is the midpoint of 2026 adjusted earnings guidance, after the Apogee deal and a $0.11 research charge.
- $287 is my 12-month target, about 5% above the $272.56 price.
The call
The price asks for steady double-digit sales growth to continue. At $272.56 the stock trades at about 20 times 2026 adjusted earnings per share. That leaves little room for a miss on Skyrizi, Rinvoq or drug pricing.
Quarterly revenue ($ billions)Source: SEC XBRL company facts, through Q2 2026
I believe growth is real but already paid for. Revenue should reach about $72.7 billion in 2027. Earnings per share should rise to about $15.03 as Apogee dilutes results. The deal adds no sales for years, and debt and milestone payments weigh on cash.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2027 revenue (my estimate) | $72.7 billion |
| Adjusted operating margin | 47.5% |
| 2027 adjusted EPS | $15.03 |
| 2028 adjusted EPS (+8%) | $16.23 |
| Blended forward EPS | $15.93 |
| Target at 18 times | $287 |
I use 18 times because Humira, Imbruvica and Vraylar face price pressure, and the Apogee deal adds debt of roughly $10 billion. The target is about 5% above the price, inside the hold band. The dividend adds about 2.5% to the return, but the upside and downside look balanced.
Risks
- Payer rebates or the IRA price negotiation cut Skyrizi or Rinvoq prices; watch net price commentary on the October 30 call.
- More acquired research charges and the Apogee deal's $0.46 dilution in 2027 weigh on earnings; watch the guidance updates.
- Aesthetics stays weak or litigation losses grow; watch Botox Cosmetic and Juvederm sales and the legal notes.
What would change my mind
Skyrizi and Rinvoq growth staying above 20% into 2027 with margins above 47% would lift my target; a price-driven slowdown would cut it.