Freeport needs $6.21 copper to support $71.14 at a normal miner multiple. With Grasberg still healing and Bagdad costs up 30%, I see 6% upside to $75.57. Hold.
Key points
- $6.21 copper is needed to justify $71.14 at 6 times normalized earnings power.
- 830M lbs copper output in Q3 shows Grasberg healing, but gold sales slipped to 100,000 oz.
- $4.5B Bagdad cost, up 30%, awaits approval and tests capital discipline into 2027.
The call
Freeport at $71.14 needs copper near $6.21 a pound forever at a normal miner multiple. That matches the October cash price near $6.58, so the market grants no dip. Upside needs both high prices and flawless Grasberg repair.
Revenue and operating income ($ billions)SEC XBRL facts via desk table, as of Oct 8 2026.
Copper momentum plus recovery justifies holding, not chasing, after a 66% yearly run. I model $19.06B normalized earnings power at $6.50 copper and $4,200 gold. At 6 times that, value is $75.57, only 6% above the price.
What FCX is worth at each copper priceMy arithmetic from mgmt sensitivity: $13B at $5 Cu, +$0.39B per $0.10, gold $4,200, 6.0x EV/EBITDA, Oct 2026.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| Normalized EBITDA at $6.50 Cu, $4,200 Au | $19.06B |
| EV at 6.0 times EBITDA | $114.36B |
| Less net debt of $5.31B | $109.05B equity |
| Divided by 1.443B shares | $75.57 target |
Six times suits a cyclical miner with Indonesia rights risk and rising capital costs. The spread to my target leaves only market-like returns, hence hold.
Risks
- Copper falls on weak grids or China demand and by-product gold fades with refinery delays.
- Grasberg ramp stalls past mid-2027 and idle costs stay in reported earnings.
- Indonesia license, taxes or export rules tighten and strand long-life value.
What would change my mind
A sustained copper break with Grasberg at full rates would lift normalized cash well above my $19.06B base.