My 2027 sales estimate was too high. Even fast 10% quarterly growth gets Rocket Lab to about $1.45 billion next year. Weighting a Neutron launch against another slip, I see $42.16 a share, about 24% below today.
Key points
- $1.40 to $1.55 billion: my 2027 sales range for Rocket Lab on its own, down from $1.70 to $1.95 billion.
- 10% a quarter: the growth guided for Q3 2026, which gets 2027 sales to only about $1.45 billion.
- $42.16 target: a 55/45 weighting of a Neutron that flies against one that slips again.
The call
At $55.25, the price needs sales to almost double next year or the premium multiple to hold. Rocket Lab's 2026 sales are heading for about $0.98 billion. My old estimate needed close to $490 million a quarter by late 2027. Neutron, the new reusable rocket, will not fly early enough to supply that.
Quarterly revenue, reported and my forecast ($ millions)- Reported
- My forecast (slip case)
Source: SEC filings through Q2 2026; Q3 2026 at guidance midpoint; forecasts are the analyst's, Oct 15 2026
I believe sales grow fast, just not that fast. Satellites and Electron launches are growing about 60% a year, and the backlog is above $2 billion. But Neutron's first flight has slipped to 2027 with no quarter given. Cash burn ran over $100 million in Q2 2026, and the Iridium deal adds debt and new shares.
Value per share by Neutron outcome ($)Analyst's arithmetic, Oct 15 2026; 719 million shares after Iridium deal
Valuation
| Step | Figure |
|---|
| 2027 sales without Iridium, flies / slips | $1.55 billion / $1.40 billion |
| Sales multiple, flies / slips | 20 times / 12 times |
| Weighted value of Rocket Lab on its own | $24.6 billion |
| Plus Iridium, net of its debt, and cash left over | $5.7 billion |
| Divided by 719 million shares after the deal | $42.16 a share |
Twenty times sales is a premium for a working Neutron. Twelve times fits a satellite builder that still loses money. Even if Neutron flies cleanly I get about $51, below today's price, and a slip points to about $31.
Risks
- A clean Neutron first flight in early 2027 could carry the multiple well above 20 times. Watch for the rocket reaching the pad and for engine test firings.
- Large Space Force or constellation awards could speed up sales. Watch the Q3 backlog and Q4 guidance in November.
- Space stocks move together on hype. A sector rally could lift the shares whatever the news.
What would change my mind
Q4 2026 guidance above $300 million with a dated Neutron launch in the first half of 2027 would move me to hold.