Skyrizi and Rinvoq have replaced Humira, but at 19.7 times 2026 profit the shares require flawless growth. We see 2.6 percent upside to $279.54.
Key points
- $8.8 billion in immunology sales in second quarter 2026 shows Skyrizi and Rinvoq now drive growth.
- $67.6 billion in revenue guidance for 2026 implies about 11 percent growth for 2026.
- $10.9 billion in cash paid for Apogee in September 2026 adds debt and dilution before any sales.
The call
The market looks about right for this drug maker. At $272.56 per share in October 2026, the price requires continued strong growth. That means about 19.7 times adjusted profit for 2026 holding. It also requires margins near 47 percent in 2027 holding.
Quarterly revenue shows Humira hole filledSEC filings to Q2 FY26; Q3-Q4 FY26E from guidance. Filed Aug 3 2026.
We see steady growth rather than acceleration from here. We forecast revenue of $73.4 billion in 2027, with payer pressure offsetting volume gains. Adjusted profit of $15.11 per share in 2027, which excludes one time items, leaves limited upside.
Revenue and adjusted EPS ($ billions except EPS)Facts: SEC filings; forecasts are mine, Oct 8 2026.
Valuation
| Driver | Estimate |
|---|
| 2026 revenue guidance | $67.6 billion in 2026 |
| 2027 revenue | $73.4 billion in 2027 |
| 2027 operating margin | 47.5% in 2027 |
| 2027 adjusted profit | $15.11 per share in 2027 |
| Multiple | 18.5 times profit in 2027 |
| 12 month target | $279.54 per share by late 2027 |
Adjusted profit means profit without one time items. Large drug makers with similar growth often trade near 17 to 19 times profit in 2027. We use 18.5 times for quality and diversity, so 2.6 percent upside in 12 months supports a Hold.
Risks
- Immunology growth stalls if rival drugs win insurance lists in 2027 and weekly prescriptions flatten.
- Debt stays high if deals delay paydowns in 2027 and yearly interest cost stays above $3 billion.
- Aesthetics stays soft if shoppers cut spending in 2027 and filler sales stay negative.
What would change my mind
Faster Skyrizi induction uptake with faster debt paydown in 2027 would support a higher target.