Third-quarter profit was MXN24.3 billion. I model $1.86 of 2027 ADS earnings at 13 times, a $24 stock, a market-like return from $23 including the dividend.
Key points
- MXN24.3 billion of third-quarter 2026 net income, up 7 percent from a year earlier.
- $1.76 of trailing ADS earnings at the implied 17.2 peso dollar rate; the $23 ADS trades at 13 times that figure.
- MXN0.54 ordinary dividend on each underlying share, about $0.59 on the ADS, a 2.6 percent yield.
The call
The $23 ADS requires about 13 times this year’s earnings and mid-single-digit peso profit growth. That is a fair multiple for a cash-generative Latin American wireless franchise, not a cheap one. Three-month underperformance versus the S&P 500 already cut the multiple from the mid-teens.
Quarterly revenue (billion Mexican pesos)Company releases through Q2 2026; Q3 2026 from Oct 20 news. My 2027 run-rate shown as E.
I believe 2027 ADS earnings land near $1.86 as Mexico prepaid and Brazil postpaid keep growing about 6 percent while Desktop and WOW add fiber, not extra countries. Thirteen times that print is $24. The market is about right; peso translation and Brazilian promotions keep a higher multiple from sticking.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| Trailing ADS earnings | $1.76 |
| My 2027 ADS earnings | $1.86 |
| Multiple | 13 times |
| 12-month target | $24.00 |
| Dividend, last 12 months | $0.59 |
| Implied total return from $23 | about 7% |
Thirteen times is the multiple the stock already pays on trailing earnings after a 12 percent three-month drop. Upside is a few dollars if the peso firms; downside is similar if Brazil promotions bite. That symmetry is a hold, not a buy.
Net income attributable (billion Mexican pesos)Releases; Q3 2026 news figure. My 2027 quarterly average as E.
Risks
- A weaker peso versus the dollar would cut reported ADS earnings even if local profit holds.
- Brazilian promotions from TIM and Vivo could stall Claro service-revenue growth below 4 percent.
- Material-weakness controls still open in the 2025 20-F could delay filings or restatements.
What would change my mind
A verified 20-F remediation and two more quarters of constant-currency service growth above 7 percent would support 15 times and a buy.