Nvidia's Rubin ramp and $632 billion FY28 sales view support $13.89 operating earnings per share. At 22 times earnings, the stock can reach $305 in twelve months, about 29% upside.
Key points
- $96.22 billion revenue in Q2 FY27, up 105.9% from a year ago, with Data Center at $89.02 billion in Q2 FY27 on Blackwell Ultra and networking strength.
- About 70% revenue growth guided for FY28 while supply constrained, with Rubin seen at 20% of Data Center revenue in Q3 FY27 and AWS adding 2 million GPUs from Q3 FY27.
- $235 billion buyback authorization remains as of September 28 2026, supporting per share gains as margins reset to 72% to 73% for FY28.
The call
The market is pricing flawless delivery. At $237.42 Nvidia sells for about 35 times trailing operating earnings (profit from running the business). That level needs FY28 revenue near $690 billion with margins above 64% for the year. That leaves no room for memory cost pressure or shipment delays.
Quarterly revenue reaccelerates into Rubin rampXBRL facts to Q2 FY27, guide Aug 26 2026. As of Oct 7 2026.
Growth should beat margin caution. I forecast FY28 revenue of $632 billion, up 55% from my FY27 estimate. I see operating margin (share of sales kept as operating profit) at 63% for FY28 as Rubin scale and price rises offset memory. Buybacks (repurchases of its own shares) then lift earnings per share (profit divided by shares).
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| FY27 revenue estimate | $407.83 billion for FY27 |
| FY28 revenue forecast | $632 billion for FY28 |
| FY28 operating earnings per share | $13.89 a share for FY28 |
| Multiple | 22 times earnings for FY28 |
| Target | $305.48 a share in 12 months |
22 times means price equals 22 years of my earnings per share for FY28. It fits a fast growing platform with 63% operating margin for FY28. Upside to my bull case outweighs downside to my bear case.
Risks
- Memory costs stay extreme and price rises slip in FY28, squeezing the 72% to 73% margin plan. Watch supplier pricing and Q4 FY27 margin print.
- Frontier lab and NeoCloud financing strains orders or collections in FY28, hurting the $632 billion sales view. Watch DSO (days of unpaid sales) and cash collection.
- Rubin yields or power and supply bottlenecks slow shipments in Q4 FY27, delaying reacceleration. Watch Rubin mix and Hyperscale growth.
What would change my mind
A sharp cut to the FY28 growth outlook or DSO rising past 75 days with weak cash collection in FY27 would break my volume thesis.