Record asset gathering supports $7.40 of 2027 earnings. Wholesale funding keeps the multiple near 15 times, a $108 stock, 17 percent above $92.
Key points
- $7.17 billion of third-quarter revenue and $1.62 GAAP EPS, up 17% and 29% year over year.
- $190 billion of core net new assets, 5.8% annualized organic growth, with lending up 35%.
- Lower end of July’s revenue and net-interest-margin ranges as loans outgrew deposits.
The call
The $92 stock needs about $7.40 of 2027 earnings at 12.4 times to merely match the market. That is a full mid-teens earnings year after a 2026 that already grew close to 40 percent from 2025.
I believe the franchise can print that $7.40, but the multiple stays near 15 times, not 18, because wholesale funding replaced cheap deposits. Asset gathering is the offset. That combination is a $108 stock, a 17 percent return.
Quarterly diluted EPS ($)SEC XBRL and Oct 15 2026 8-K; Q4 2026E and 2027E are mine
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2026E revenue | $28.1 billion |
| 2026E diluted EPS | $6.50 |
| 2027E EPS (14% growth) | $7.40 |
| Multiple | 14.6 times |
| 12-month target | $108 |
Fifteen times is a normal bank-brokerage multiple when net interest margin is expanding but deposit mix is worse. Being right on assets and wrong on funding still leaves a high-teens return; being wrong on both leaves the stock near $85.
Risks
- Loan growth keeps outrunning deposits, lifting wholesale costs and freezing NIM.
- Equity-market drop cuts asset-management fees and trading at once.
- Long/short restrictions slow Advisor Services gathering.
What would change my mind
A winter update that restores the July NIM path without extra wholesale funding would support a higher multiple.