Guidance of 9 to 10 percent 2026 earnings growth is real, but much of it is currency. After that fades, $85.90 still needs about 25 times 2027 earnings. I expect $84 in twelve months.
Key points
- 9 to 10% comparable EPS growth is the July 28, 2026 full-year guide, from $3.00 in 2025.
- About 3 points of that growth is a currency tailwind that will not repeat in 2027.
- 24.7 times 2027 earnings of $3.48 is what $85.90 requires; I use 24 times.
The call
The price requires 2026 comparable earnings of $3.29 and then another 7 percent in 2027 at a 25-times multiple. Organic revenue is guided at about 5 percent, and volume on a two-year average is 2 percent, so that extra growth has to come from mix, buybacks, or a richer multiple.
I believe 2027 earnings grow about 6 percent to $3.48 as the dollar benefit fades and African bottling leaves the books. A 24-times multiple on that number is $84, a shade below today's close. The market is a little too optimistic on the multiple, not on the brand.
GAAP diluted EPS history and my 2026-27 view ($)SEC GAAP EPS through FY25; FY26-27E are my comparable-style estimates from July 28 guidance. Oct 8, 2026.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2025 comparable EPS | $3.00 |
| 2026E comparable EPS (guide mid) | $3.29 |
| 2027E EPS (my 6% growth) | $3.48 |
| Multiple on 2027E | 24 times |
| 12-month target | $84 |
| Dividend over the year | about $2.12 |
Twenty-four times is a full consumer-staple multiple once currency help is gone. Upside to $90 needs 26 times or 8 percent 2027 growth; downside to the high $70s if volume stays at 2 percent. That is a hold, not a sale: you collect the yield and roughly track the market.
Risks
- An adverse 11th Circuit tax ruling would crystallize a gap far larger than the $529 million reserve.
- Asia Pacific price/mix stays negative and India share loss continues into 2027.
- The African bottling sale slips or BODYARMOR takes another write-down.
What would change my mind
A clean 2027 organic-growth algorithm above 6 percent with volume above 3 percent and no tax shock would justify 25 times and a buy.