Raised 2026 revenue guidance and a 2.84% margin still leave 2027 earnings near $5.70 a share. At 11 times that is a $63 stock, a market-like return from $57.
Key points
- $1.34 third-quarter diluted EPS, up 9.8% year over year, after a $0.07 reserve build.
- 8% to 9% full-year 2026 revenue growth, raised today, or 6% to 7% without BTIG.
- 10.8% regulatory CET1; AOCI-inclusive CET1 fell to 9.1% and buybacks stay paused.
The call
The $57 stock already needs about $5.20 of 2027 earnings at eleven times, or $5.70 at ten times. That is roughly what a 6% to 7% organic revenue path plus a 2.9% margin can deliver, so the next twelve months look like a market return, not a rerating.
I model $5.70 of 2027 earnings, a 5% lift from a $5.40 2026 run-rate, as loan mix and fixed-asset repricing offset deposit costs and the buyback pause. Eleven times that earnings, in line with a large regional bank that still has AOCI drag, is $63.
Diluted EPS by quarter ($)Company reports through Q3 2026; Q4 2026E–Q4 2027E are mine
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2026 EPS (my estimate) | $5.40 |
| 2027 EPS (my estimate) | $5.70 |
| Multiple on 2027 earnings | 11 times |
| 12-month target | $63 |
| Dividend over twelve months | about $2.16 |
| Implied price return from $57.39 | 10% |
Eleven times is a fair multiple for 8% to 10% earnings growth, 18% tangible return on equity, and a paused repurchase program. Being right by a dollar of earnings is worth about $11 a share; being wrong on credit or rates is a similar hit the other way, so the rating is hold, not buy.
Risks
- AOCI-inclusive CET1 stays near 9% if five-year yields keep rising, delaying buybacks into late 2027.
- Net charge-offs move above 0.60% if commercial real estate or the Amazon card book weakens.
- Deposit costs catch the next hike faster than the 50% beta management assumes.
What would change my mind
A restart of material share repurchases with CET1 including AOCI back above 9.5% would support a higher multiple.