ASML posted record Q3 sales and raised 2026 guidance as demand tops supply through 2028. At $1,649, 33 times 2027 profit leaves little room for delay, so I stay at hold for $1,580.48.
Key points
- €11.7 billion of Q3 2026 sales set a record with 57.5 percent gross margin on upgrades.
- €14.7 billion of Q4 2026 sales at the midpoint guides full year sales to €44 to €45 billion.
- €9.3 billion of customer deposits at September fund demand that tops planned 2027 and 2028 supply.
The call
The price still demands growth with little room for delay. At $1,649 the stock values ASML at about 33 times my $49.39 of 2027 operating profit per share. That leaves the market expecting 2027 supply growth plus full pricing power on time.
Quarterly sales jump to a record and guide higher- Reported revenue
- My forecast
ASML 6-K exhibits Oct 14 2026; Q4 mid of guide; 2027 author's estimate.
I see a strong business with timing risk instead. My work points to €52.0 billion of 2027 sales at 57 percent gross margin (sales minus factory cost divided by sales) for $49.39 per share. Demand exceeds planned supply through 2028, but upgrades and ramp costs make 33 times too rich.
Valuation
| Driver | Estimate |
|---|
| 2027 sales | €52.0 billion in 2027 |
| 2027 operating profit per share | $49.39 a share in 2027 |
| Target multiple | 32 times 2027 operating profit |
| Target price | $1,580.48 a share by October 2027 |
| 32 times fits the sole supplier of EUV (tools that print chip circuits with light) growing near 17 percent. Past peaks above 36 times faded after shipment surges. About 4 percent downside to target supports a hold. | |
Operating profit drives EPS once Mistral gain removedQ3 ex-gain scales reported EPS by cash gain; Q4 and 2027 author's estimates.
Risks
- Memory orders fade if chip prices fall in 2027, seen in weekly DRAMeXchange spot prices and quarterly memory mix.
- Upgrade sales normalize after a €400 million beat in Q3 2026, seen in quarterly installed base sales and gross margin.
- Capacity ramp costs run high if 30 percent output growth slips in 2027, seen in quarterly gross margin and system shipments.
What would change my mind
I would turn positive if funded 2028 orders with deposits stay above €9 billion while 2027 output rises 30 percent on plan.