Revenue is growing 93% with 47% operating margins, but at $198.77 the stock needs about 40% growth into 2028. I forecast that, so the target is $187.72, 6% below the price.
Key points
- 93% revenue growth in Q2 2026 to $1.94 billion, with a 47% operating margin.
- 40 times my 2027 revenue: the $523 billion value on $13.0 billion.
- $187.72 target, 6% under the $198.77 price: a hold.
The call
The price requires growth to stay very high for years. At $198.77 the company is worth about $523 billion. That is 40 times my 2027 revenue and 29 times my 2028 revenue.
I believe growth stays strong but cools. Guidance rose $500 million in one quarter, and net dollar retention (spending growth from existing customers) is 157%. But comparisons get harder, 81% of revenue is U.S., and the UK regulator did not renew a contract.
Revenue ($ billions), reported and my forecastSEC filings; 2026 guidance, 2027-28 are my estimates. Oct 8, 2026
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2027 revenue (60% growth) | $13.0 billion |
| 2028 revenue (40% growth) | $18.3 billion |
| 2028 free cash flow (58% margin) | $10.6 billion |
| Multiple on 2028 free cash flow | 45 times |
| Net cash by late 2027 | $17 billion |
| Target per share (2.63 billion shares) | $187.72 |
A 45 times multiple is rich, but fits growth near 40% with 58% cash margins. At 40 times the value is $168; at 50 times it is $208. That range brackets the price, so the reward and the loss look about even. After a 54% rise in three months, the stock needs execution to match my estimates.
Risks
- Growth fades faster as European and UK public work wobbles; watch quarterly guidance and further contract non-renewals.
- Model makers and software incumbents copy the integration layer; watch net dollar retention and deal sizes.
- Stock pay dilutes holders; shares across all classes reached 2.40 billion, so watch the count and insider selling.
What would change my mind
Two quarters of revenue growth above 80% with margins above 50% would lift my target; growth under 40% would cut it.
