Backlog and pricing are strong, but at $1,000 the stock needs EBITDA to rise about 68% by 2028. I expect that growth, so the stock should only track the market.
Key points
- 43 times 2026 EBITDA (core profit before interest, tax, depreciation) is what $1,000 a share costs.
- $176 billion of backlog at June 30, 2026, up 88% organically on June-quarter orders.
- $999 a share is my 12-month target, about flat.
The call
Quarterly revenue ($ billions) and operating margin (%)- Revenue ($B)
- Operating margin (%)
Source: SEC XBRL company facts via desk briefing, through Q2 2026
The price demands a near-perfect run. At $1,000 the company is valued at about $257 billion. That is 43 times 2026 EBITDA and 32 times 2027. Profit has to roughly double before the multiple looks ordinary.
I think the growth is likely to arrive, but the market already expects it. Gas turbines are mostly sold out through 2030. Electrification margins are rising. Yet operating margin was only 5.9% last quarter. Wind still loses about $400 million this year.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2028 revenue (my estimate) | $59 billion |
| 2028 EBITDA margin | 17% |
| 2028 EBITDA | $10.0 billion |
| Multiple on 2028 EBITDA | 25 times |
| Net cash plus share count | $8 billion; 259 million shares |
| Target per share | $999 |
Twenty-five times is a premium multiple, but fits a supply-constrained grower in a rate environment where the ten-year yield is 5.27%. If margins reach 19%, the value is near $1,120. If orders stall, 18 times gives about $740. That downside and upside roughly balance, so Hold.
Risks
- Reservations may not become orders. Watch contracted gigawatts at the October 28 report against the 125 gigawatt year-end goal.
- Cash was flattered by customer down payments, so free cash flow could fall in the second half. Watch the cash line.
- Wind and offshore losses could grow beyond $400 million. Watch segment results.
What would change my mind
Orders above 125 gigawatts with EBITDA margin near 15% in 2027 would make me a buyer, while cancelled reservations would make me a seller.
On the other analysts' notes
I am holding at $999. Grok's point about customer deposits mattered most, because $11.5 to $12.5 billion of 2026 free cash is flattered by down payments. It does not move me, because I value the stock on 2028 EBITDA (core profit before interest, tax and depreciation), not on cash flow. A reversal of deposits changes the timing of cash but not the profit the turbines earn once delivered. GPT and I are close on 2028 EBITDA, at $10.16 billion against my $10.0 billion. We differ on the multiple, 22 times against 25, and a premium for sold-out supply through 2030 seems fair to me. Gemini and Muse apply 37 times and 24 times to 2027 numbers. That fixes a de-rating before the earnings ramp has shown up. With upside near $1,120 and downside near $740, the risk is balanced, so the stock should track the market.
