A $157 stock needs about $8.6 billion of 2027 EBITDA at nine times. Management’s own midpoint is $7.6 billion, and ERCOT forwards have already slipped. That is a $142 stock.
Key points
- $7.6 billion is the 2027 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity Vistra still cites, excluding Cogentrix and Meta premiums.
- Nine times that EBITDA, after $20.5 billion of net debt, is $142 a share on 338 million shares.
- $8.6 billion of 2027 EBITDA is what $157 requires at the same multiple, well above the maintained range.
The call
The price treats next year’s cash as if the nuclear loan and data-center story had already raised run-rate earnings. At nine times enterprise value, $156.78 needs roughly $8.6 billion of 2027 EBITDA after $20.5 billion of net debt. Guidance and the August 7 call still sit at $7.2 billion this year and $7.6 billion next.
I use the company’s own $7.6 billion midpoint, not a higher story number. ERCOT curves are already below the October 2025 set that built that range. Hedging, PJM capacity, and nuclear credits can hold the midpoint; they do not lift it to $8.6 billion inside twelve months. The DOE $4.2 billion commitment is still conditional and funds uprates years out.
Ongoing adjusted EBITDA ($ billions)- Reported / guidance mid
- Your estimate
Company guidance and Q2 2026 call; 2026-27E are desk estimates. As of Oct 8, 2026.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2027 ongoing EBITDA (yours) | $7.6 billion |
| EV / EBITDA | 9 times |
| Enterprise value | $68.4 billion |
| Net debt used | $20.5 billion |
| Shares | 338 million |
| 12-month target | $142 |
Nine times is a full merchant multiple for a hedged, investment-grade generator with retail cash. Asymmetry is modest: being right on the $7.6 billion print still leaves the stock below today; a surprise to $8.6 billion would only restore the current price.
Risks
- Cogentrix closes and Meta premiums enter 2027 EBITDA earlier than the call assumed.
- ERCOT or PJM forwards re-steepen enough that management raises the 2027 range on November 6.
- The DOE loan becomes funded on cheap terms and the market pays for 2028 uprates now.
What would change my mind
A 2027 EBITDA range with a midpoint at or above $8.2 billion, or funded DOE terms that clearly pull cash into 2027.