Visa is growing double digits again on travel and fee-rich services. At 29 times past earnings, the shares need only what Visa already delivers to reach $418.
Key points
- $11.6 billion of net revenue in fiscal Q3 FY26 grew 14% from a year earlier.
- $3.8 billion of value-added services sales in fiscal Q3 FY26 grew 34% ignoring currency moves.
- $28.4 billion of buyback room remained in July FY26 after $16.5 billion spent in nine months.
The call
Market doubts will fade slowly. At $371.80 a share this week, Visa trades at 29 times past earnings. That standing needs low-teens growth in FY27 to stay justified.
Quarterly net revenue ($ billions)SEC XBRL and July 28 release to Q3 FY26; Q4 FY26E is author's estimate. As of Oct 7 2026.
I expect faster profit instead. Fiscal Q3 FY26 revenue of $11.6 billion grew 14% from a year earlier. Cross-border volume rose 13% in fiscal Q3 FY26 while services and Visa Direct add higher-fee sales. That mix supports 13% earnings growth in FY27.
Valuation
Annual earnings power ($ per share)Non-GAAP diluted EPS; FY25 from reported history, FY26E and FY27E are author's estimates. As of Oct 7 2026.
| Driver | Figure |
|---|
| Non-GAAP EPS in FY26 | $13.20 a share |
| Non-GAAP EPS in FY27 | $14.91 a share |
| Multiple on FY27 earnings | 28 times |
| Target in 12 months | $418.00 a share |
| A 28 times multiple fits a toll taker on global spending with 60% operating margins in FY25. It matches past earnings power plus buybacks that cut share count. The 12% upside gives room if growth slows a point. | |
Risks
- Spending slows if jobs weaken, and you would see it in flat US payments volume in monthly reports.
- Lawsuits and debit rules raise costs, and you would see it in higher litigation escrow deposits in filings.
- New instant payments and stablecoins bypass card rails, and you would see it in falling cross-border yield in quarterly results.
What would change my mind
One weak quarter of payments volume and services growth in fiscal Q4 FY26 would cut my FY27 estimates.