BNY earned $2.34 per share in Q3 2026 on broad fee growth. I see $10.47 in 2027 worth 15 times, or $157.05, so I rate it hold.
Key points
- $5.68 billion of sales in Q3 2026, up 12% from Q3 2025 on custody fees and bond reinvestment.
- $2.34 per share of profit in Q3 2026, up 24% from Q3 2025 at 38.5% pretax margin before tax costs.
- $63.4 trillion of client assets held in custody at Sep 30 2026, up 10% from Sep 30 2025.
The call
The price looks about fair today. At $143.47 per share in Oct 2026, the stock needs steady growth. That price equals 13.7 times my profit estimate for 2027.
Quarterly revenue with guidance run-rate ($ billions)- Reported revenue
- Muse forecast
Company supplements Oct 15 2026; Q4 FY26E onward Muse estimates.
I see modest upside from here. I forecast $10.47 per share of profit in 2027. That rests on $24.06 billion of sales in 2027 with slower cost growth.
Valuation
| Driver | Estimate |
|---|
| 2026 sales | $22.59 billion |
| 2026 profit | $9.31 a share |
| 2027 sales | $24.06 billion |
| 2027 profit | $10.47 a share |
| Multiple | 15 times profit |
| Target | $157.05 a share |
| Fifteen times means paying $15 for each $1 of yearly profit in 2027. That fits a 29% return on tangible equity in Q3 2026, which is profit on equity without goodwill. Upside of 9.5% to Oct 2027 with rate risk keeps this a hold. | |
What BNY is worth at each multiple on 2027 profitMuse estimates from Oct 15 guidance; 660M shares in 2027.
Risks
- Lending and bond profit could fall if rates drop fast in 2027. Watch quarterly net interest income, which is profit from loans and bonds.
- Fee growth could stall if markets fall or cash leaves in 2027. Watch client assets under custody, which are assets BNY looks after, and quarterly net flows.
- Capital returns could slow if the safety buffer keeps falling in 2027. Watch the CET1 ratio, which is the core safety buffer, and buyback dollars.
What would change my mind
Stronger fee growth with costs steady through 2027 would lift profit enough to turn me more positive.