Vyvgart sales should still climb about 26% next year after the Sjögren’s halt. At 26 times that earnings the stock belongs near $860, a market-like return from $818.
Key points
- $1.52 billion of Q2 2026 product sales, up 60% year over year and 17% sequentially.
- 26% sales growth in 2027 is my forecast after the UNITY halt, to about $7.6 billion.
- $33 of 2027 earnings at a 33% operating margin is worth $860 at 26 times.
The call
The $818 price needs about $31.50 of 2027 earnings at 26 times, which is a 33% operating margin on roughly $7.5 billion of sales. That is already a slower year than the 62% first-half jump.
I believe sales still reach about $7.6 billion in 2027 as gMG seronegative use and CIDP switching continue. Sjögren’s is a real pipeline loss, not a commercial one. Myositis filing and EMPASSION in MMN are the 12-month tests.
Product net sales ($ millions)Company releases through Q2 2026; 2026–27 figures are my estimates
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2026 product sales (my estimate) | $6.0 billion |
| 2027 product sales (my estimate) | $7.6 billion |
| 2027 operating margin | 33% |
| 2027 diluted earnings | $33 a share |
| Multiple | 26 times |
| 12-month target | $860 |
A 26 times multiple is a growth-drug rate, not a scarcity premium. Being right by a few dollars of earnings does not pay much; being wrong on CIDP retention would cut more than 20% off the stock.
Risks
- CIDP stays stuck behind IVIg habits; watch sequential US sales in the October 22 print.
- Myositis filing fails on the DM subtype; watch FDA correspondence after ALKIVIA.
- A competing FcRn or complement launch undercuts net price; watch US gross-to-net commentary.
What would change my mind
Two quarters of US sequential sales below 8% after seasonality, or a myositis complete-response letter.