Revenue can double again next year, but interest and capex keep equity cash-flow negative. At 3.6 times 2027 sales after $40 billion of net debt the shares belong near $68.
Key points
- $12.8 billion is the midpoint of company 2026 revenue guidance after $2.58 billion in the June quarter.
- $30 billion of net debt after the September convertibles sits against $45 billion of equity at $81.61.
- $22 billion is my 2027 revenue; 3.6 times that enterprise value after $40 billion of net debt is $68 a share.
The call
The $81.61 price treats CoreWeave as if 2027 sales of about $28 billion at 4.5 times enterprise value, after today’s debt, were already visible. That path needs take-or-pay delivery, GPU life, and power on a timetable the balance sheet cannot miss.
I model $22 billion of 2027 sales, still more than 70% above this year’s guide, at 3.6 times, with net debt drifting to $40 billion on 575 million shares. The market is too optimistic: listed H100 hours at $6.16 versus Lambda at $3.99 show price competition, and GAAP operating income is still negative.
Revenue ($ billions) versus what $82 needs- Reported and desk
- Sales $82 requires at 4.5x EV
Company filings through Q2 2026; 2026E is company midpoint guidance; 2027E is this desk
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2027 revenue (desk) | $22 billion |
| Enterprise multiple | 3.6 times sales |
| Enterprise value | $79 billion |
| Net debt in 12 months | $40 billion |
| Shares | 575 million |
| 12-month target | $68 |
A 3.6 times sales multiple is what a still-unprofitable, high-debt infrastructure vendor earns when growth is real but cash after capex is not. Upside if 2027 sales surprise is capped by dilution and interest; downside if power slips is large, which is why this is a sell not a hold.
Free cash flow stays deeply negative ($ billions)SEC cash flow through Q2 2026; 2026E uses company capex guide minus estimated operating cash
Risks
- Contracts convert faster than I model and adjusted operating margin hits the low teens in Q4, supporting a richer multiple.
- GPU on-demand prices hold and Lambda-style discounting stays limited to unused hours.
- Equity raises stay small versus the ATM authorization.
What would change my mind
A reported quarter of positive GAAP operating income with free cash flow better than minus $3 billion would force a higher multiple.