The $17 billion equipment frames are optional through 2034 and add no 2027 cash. I still model $10.5 billion of 2027 EBITDA at 7.5 times, a $13.80 stock, a market-like return from $12.51.
Key points
- $8.9 billion is the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, still heavy with commissioning sales.
- $10.5 billion is my 2027 EBITDA once Plaquemines Phase 1 is commercial and most cargoes sit on $5-class long-term fees.
- 7.5 times that EBITDA, after $38.7 billion net debt and $3.5 billion of noncontrolling interests, lands at $13.80 a share.
The call
The $12.51 price requires 2027 EBITDA near $10.4 billion if the enterprise is worth 7.5 times, typical for contracted Gulf Coast liquefaction with $42 billion of project debt. That is a run-rate plant multiple, not a growth multiple.
I believe 2027 can deliver $10.5 billion as Plaquemines Phase 1 starts commercial operation in the fourth quarter of 2026 and cargo coverage stays above 90 percent. Commissioning spreads then shrink. The October equipment frames are optional through 2034 and do not add 2027 cash. The market is about right.
Adjusted EBITDA: 2026 guidance vs 2027E ($ billions)Company August 11, 2026 guidance; 2027E is this desk
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2027E adjusted EBITDA | $10.5 billion |
| Enterprise multiple | 7.5 times |
| Enterprise value | $78.8 billion |
| Less net debt (June 30) | $38.7 billion |
| Less NCI | $3.5 billion |
| Equity / 2.643 billion shares | $13.80 |
Seven and a half times is what a leveraged, contracted LNG operator trades at once the commissioning window closes. The AI utility has no customers, financing or 2027 earnings, so it does not earn a higher multiple yet. Upside if winter TTF stays high is a few dollars a share; a BP or Galp damages surprise can cut more than that. The payoff is symmetric, which is a hold.
From 2027E EBITDA to equity value ($ billions)June 30 2026 net debt and NCI; 2.643 billion diluted shares
Risks
- Plaquemines Phase 1 misses fourth-quarter 2026 commercial operation; watch FERC in-service notices and the next 8-K cargo file.
- Arbitration awards exceed the $170 million Galp cap or BP’s May 2027 hearing books a large reserve; watch 10-Q legal notes.
- Binding reservation fees or early purchase orders drain cash before any data-center revenue; watch the Q3 10-Q exhibits.
What would change my mind
A clean Plaquemines COD plus 2027 EBITDA guidance above $12 billion with no new legal reserve would justify a higher multiple.