A $53 stock already needs about $6 billion of 2027 EBITDA. I model $6.1 billion at a $3.20 Henry Hub, which at 6.5 times is $56, a market-like return.
Key points
- $38.6 billion enterprise value at $52.83 needs about $6.1 billion of 2027 EBITDA at 6.3 times.
- 2,375, 2,450 Bcfe is 2026 sales-volume guidance after the July raise of 90 Bcfe.
- $2.90 Henry Hub on October 9 and a $3.24 2027 strip keep cash generation high but not scarce.
The call
The shares require roughly $6 billion of 2027 EBITDA just to sit here. Midstream cash and compression help, yet the multiple already treats EQT as the low-cost Appalachian compounder.
I model $6.1 billion of 2027 EBITDA attributable to EQT on a $3.20 Hub and 2.45 Tcfe of sales. At 6.5 times, with net debt near $4.8 billion, the stock is $56. That is a market-like return, not a rerating.
EQT revenue and free cash flow ($ billions)- Revenue
- Free cash flow
- My FCF (desk)
SEC filings through 2025; 2026E–2027E are this desk’s estimates. As of Oct 14, 2026.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2027 EBITDA (desk) | $6.1 billion |
| EV / EBITDA | 6.5 times |
| Enterprise value | $39.7 billion |
| Net debt (year-end 2026E) | $4.8 billion |
| Shares | 624 million |
| 12-month target | $56 |
Six and a half times is a mid-cycle gas multiple, not a peak. If Hub averages $3.50 the equity works $8, 10 higher; if it stays at $2.80 the stock is closer to $48. Asymmetry is modest, so the rating is hold.
Risks
- Henry Hub stays below $2.80 through 2027; watch EIA weekly storage and the 2027 strip.
- Minority midstream cash (PipeBox 60/40 split) is less than consolidated FCF; watch attributable FCF in the 10-Q.
- LNG offtake slips past 2028; watch the January 2028 start language on the next call.
What would change my mind
A 2027 strip above $3.80 with a buyback of more than 5% of shares would make the stock a buy.