Palantir is growing near 93% but at $199 the shares equal 61 times guided FY26 sales. I see 50% growth in FY27 worth $147.
Key points
- $1.94B revenue in Q2 FY26 grew 93% from a year ago with U.S. commercial up 149%.
- $13.1B remaining deal value in June plus $4.9B in firm backlog funds the $8.15B FY26 guide.
- 61 times FY26 sales at $199 needs FY27 growth near 76% even at a rich 35 times sales.
The call
The market is too optimistic. At $199 a share, Palantir carries a $511B market value. After $9.4B in cash, the business value is huge. It equals 61 times $8.15B in guided FY26 sales.
Quarterly revenue jumps then must stay highSEC filings to Q2 FY26, Q3-Q4 from FY26 guidance Aug 3 2026.
Growth will stay superb but fall short. I forecast $12.23B in FY27 sales on 50% growth. At 30 times sales, the business is worth $367B plus cash. That equals $147 a share.
Valuation
| Driver to target | Figure |
|---|
| FY27 sales on 50% growth in FY27 | $12.23B in FY27 |
| Business value at 30 times sales in FY27 | $366.9B in FY27 |
| Plus net cash with no debt in June | $9.41B in June |
| Target on 2.57B shares in 12 months | $147 a share in 12 months |
Thirty times sales still ranks near the top for large software. It already credits durable 50% growth and 55% cash margins. A miss hurts more than a beat helps, so I rate it sell.
Price needs far faster growth than my planOwn math from $198.77 price, $8.15B FY26 guide, $9.41B cash, Oct 8 2026.
Risks
- Government deals slip if budgets freeze, seen in slower remaining deal value in quarterly reports.
- Commercial pilots stall before rollout, seen in weaker retention below 150% in quarterly reports.
- Hosting and hiring lift costs, seen in lower operating margins below 40% in quarterly reports.
What would change my mind
I would turn positive if U.S. commercial growth stays above 70% in FY27 with cash margins above 55%.