The shares need only about $10 of 2027 earnings at 12 times to sit here. I model $9.93 and 15 times, a $149 stock, because origination still funds both fees and Athene spreads.
Key points
- $9.93 is my 2027 adjusted earnings per share, after 16% fee growth and 8% spread growth.
- 15 times that figure produces a $149 twelve-month target, 29% above $115.30.
- $785 million of second-quarter fee related earnings was up 25% year over year; management kept a 20% 2026 floor.
The call
The $115.30 price requires about $9.93 of 2027 earnings at only 12 times. That multiple treats a $1 trillion origination machine as a mid-cycle insurer, even after a 12-month lag versus the market.
I believe fee related earnings still compound mid-teens and Athene spreads hold near 110 basis points, so 2027 earnings reach $9.93. At 15 times, a normal private-credit manager multiple, the stock belongs near $149. The market is too pessimistic on origination durability.
Fee and spread earnings ($ billions)- Fee related earnings
- Spread related earnings
Company reports through FY25; 2026-27E are this desk
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2025 fee related earnings | $2.53 billion |
| 2027 fee related earnings (mine) | $3.52 billion |
| 2027 spread related earnings (mine) | $3.93 billion |
| 2027 adjusted net income | $6.19 billion |
| 2027 earnings per share | $9.93 |
| Target at 15 times | $149 |
Fifteen times is below the 16-to-18 range the name carried when fee growth was slower. Asymmetry is favorable: a miss on alternatives still leaves a high-teens fee stream. That supports a buy, not a strong buy, because alternative returns already printed 10% versus an 11% plan.
Risks
- Alternative returns stay below 11% for several more quarters; watch the November 3 spread related earnings print.
- Athene inflows miss the $85 billion 2026 target; watch retail and flow-reinsurance volumes.
- Private-credit marks gap versus public high-yield; watch ADS NAV and high-yield spreads near 3.1%.
What would change my mind
A 2026 fee related earnings print below 15% growth, or a cut to the 2026 fee outlook on the November call.