Vyvgart grew 60% to $1.52B in Q2 while the Oct 8 drop prices one failed trial as the story. I see 15.3% upside to $942.91 on 2027 earnings of $42.86 at 22 times.
Key points
- $1.52B in second quarter product sales grew about 60% from a year ago on broader myasthenia use and the prefilled syringe.
- $3.0B in pro forma net cash after the $2.2B Forte deal funds Phase 3 work with no bank debt.
- Down 11.9% on Oct 8 to $817.97 leaves the stock oversold with a 14 day strength index of 18.
The call
The selloff overstates one miss. At 22 times earnings, a standard price for fast biotech growth, the $817.97 price requires only $37.18 in 2027 earnings per share. That is cautious for a drug growing over 50% with a new 11,000 patient label added in May.
Vyvgart product sales keep climbing ($ millions)Company releases via 6-K Exhibit 99.1, IFRS; Q3 FY26E and Q4 FY26E are author's forecasts. As of Oct 8, 2026.
Vyvgart can still fund the pipeline alone. I expect 34% sales growth to $8.58B in 2027 as earlier prescribing and 5,000 repeat doctors compound, plus option value from myositis and celiac Phase 3. The market sees only the Sjogren failure today.
Target depends on multiple paid for growth ($ per share)Author estimates from July 23 interim report; 22x on $42.86 2027E EPS. As of Oct 8, 2026.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2027 product sales | $8.58B |
| 2027 operating profit at 36% margin | $3.13B |
| 2027 earnings per share on 64.5M shares | $42.86 |
| Multiple, peer growth biotech | 22 times |
| 12 month target | $942.91 |
The 22 times multiple fits 30% plus growth with rising margins and net cash. At 18 times the stock falls to $771.48. Upside to $1,071.50 at 25 times outweighs that downside, so I rate it a buy.
Risks
- CIDP stalls as entrenched IVIg habits persist, which quarterly patient counts and US growth would show.
- Payer discounts widen and gross to net (the share given to insurers) rises above 20%, which pricing notes would show.
- Myositis filing narrows after the mixed subtypes, which regulator letters would show.
What would change my mind
Repeat prescription growth stalls for two quarters or net pricing falls while spending stays high.