The $56 share needs about $1.82 billion of 2027 adjusted operating profit at 23 times. I model that profit after Airtable and Miro, but only 18.5 times, a $43 stock.
Key points
- $4.03 billion is my 2027 revenue after 4% organic growth plus Airtable and Miro.
- $1.82 billion is my 2027 adjusted operating income, 45% of sales.
- 23 times that profit is what $56 requires after $5.8 billion of net debt.
The call
The market is too optimistic. At $55.89 the equity is about $36.7 billion and enterprise value about $42.4 billion, or 23 times my 2027 adjusted operating income. Organic growth was 3% in the June quarter, and August guidance still excludes the two large deals.
I believe 18.5 times that $1.82 billion, after $5.8 billion of net debt and 656 million shares, is a $43 stock. Berkshire’s pending $330 million placement at $33 a share is capital, not a higher multiple. Integration capacity, not deal flow, is the constraint.
Revenue and adjusted operating income ($ billions)- Revenue
- Adj. operating income
Issuer Q2 2026 release and my 2027 build including Airtable and Miro.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2027 revenue (mine) | $4.03 billion |
| 2027 adjusted operating income | $1.82 billion |
| Net debt, year-end 2027 | $5.8 billion |
| Shares | 656 million |
| Multiple | 18.5 times AOI |
| 12-month target | $43 |
Eighteen and a half times is a serial acquirer of mature software, not a 23-times compounder. If I am right the downside is about 23%; if the deals lift margins faster the stock can still grind with the market.
From $56 share to $43 target ($ per share)18.5 times my $1.82 billion of 2027 adjusted operating income, net of $5.8 billion debt.
Risks
- Miro or Airtable close late or on worse terms, cutting 2027 profit.
- Organic growth stays near 3% as AI substitutes for paid tools.
- Interest on the new term loans exceeds 7.5% after hedges roll.
What would change my mind
A 2027 outlook that puts adjusted operating income above $2.1 billion with organic growth above 8%.