RASONQUE is approved, but 2027 second-line pancreatic sales near $1 billion still leave a loss. The shares need 2028 sales the later pipeline has not earned.
Key points
- $39,800 is the monthly list price; eight months at 55% net is about $175,000 per treated U.S. patient.
- $1.05 billion is my 2027 product-sales case, almost all second-line pancreas, against $2.4 billion of opex.
- $2.6 billion of 2028 sales at 15 times enterprise value is what a $194 share needs; I model $2.0 billion.
The call
The market is too optimistic. At $193.80 and 214 million shares the equity is $41.5 billion. After about $2 billion of net cash that requires roughly $2.6 billion of 2028 sales at 15 times. Second-line pancreas cannot get there alone.
I believe 2027 sales are $1.05 billion and 2028 sales $2.0 billion as Europe and a modest first-line start add on. That is still a large loss. Twelve times 2028 sales plus remaining cash is a $165 stock. Lung and first-line pancreas remain options, not 2027 cash.
R&D and operating loss versus first product sales- R&D
- Operating loss
- My product sales
GAAP from 10-K/10-Q through Q2 2026; 2026-27E are mine. Revenue starts at approval.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2027 product sales (mine) | $1.05 billion |
| 2028 product sales (mine) | $2.0 billion |
| EV / 2028 sales | 12 times |
| Enterprise value | $24.0 billion |
| Net cash, end-2027 | $1.8 billion |
| Equity / diluted shares | $25.8 billion / 220 million = $165 |
Twelve times is a growth-biotech multiple once the first label is known and the next labels are still in Phase 3. Asymmetry is poor: a perfect 2L launch adds perhaps $20 a share; a slow net-price or delayed lung readout takes much more.
From today\u2019s $194 share to a $165 targetMy 12-month bridge. Pipeline option stays in the price; 2L sales multiple compresses.
Risks
- Gross-to-net and starts: payer friction would cut 2027 sales well below $1 billion.
- Label stay-put: first-line and lung trials fail to convert high response rates into survival.
- Burn: $2.1 billion 2026 opex plus HQ leases force more equity or royalty.
What would change my mind
A clean 2027 sales run-rate above $1.6 billion or a first-line survival win that makes $2.5 billion of 2028 sales the base case.