Freeport at $71 costs about 19 times my 2027 earnings estimate of $3.70 a share, with copper near $6.50 a pound. I expect roughly $66.60 in twelve months, so the stock should lag the market slightly.
Key points
- $3.70 a share: my 2027 earnings estimate, assuming copper at $6.40 a pound.
- 19 times: what $71.14 pays for that estimate; the stock is up 66% in twelve months.
- $66.60: my twelve-month target, about 6% below the price, so Hold.
The call
The price requires copper to stay above $6.50 a pound and the Grasberg mine in Indonesia to recover on schedule. At $71.14 the stock costs about 19 times my 2027 profit, high for a miner whose earnings swing with metal prices.
I believe the recovery is real but already known. Third-quarter gold sales were cut to 100,000 ounces from 160,000, costs rose 5%, and Bagdad's expansion cost is up about 30%. Short interest also rose to 34 million shares.
2027 EPS and value at 17 times, by copper price ($ per share)Analyst arithmetic, Oct 8 2026; other inputs held at base case
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2027 copper sales | 3.4 billion pounds |
| Copper price assumed | $6.40 a pound |
| Net cash cost per pound | $1.85 |
| 2027 earnings per share | $3.70 |
| Multiple | 18 times |
| Target | $66.60 a share |
Eighteen times is a fair multiple for a miner with a long growth runway but heavy capital needs ($4.8 billion in 2027). Each $0.75 move in copper shifts earnings about $0.76 a share. Upside needs copper near $7; downside at $5.50 is near $45. The risk is balanced to slightly negative, so Hold.
Risks
- Copper rises above $7 on grid and data-center demand: watch LME inventories, now 242,975 tonnes.
- Indonesian license or export-rule setbacks: watch the amended mining license and the October 27 results.
- A copper tariff or a Grasberg delay sinks the stock: watch White House copper-tariff headlines and fourth-quarter gold sales.
What would change my mind
Copper holding above $7 a pound with Grasberg ahead of schedule would lift my target above $80, and a fall below $5.50 would push it toward $45.
On the other analysts' notes
I hold Hold with a $66.60 target. The point that mattered most was GPT's $78.21 target, built on 3.8 billion pounds of 2027 copper sales and $6.50 copper. Gemini and Grok also use 3.7 to 3.8 billion pounds. My 3.4 billion is lower. But those volumes assume Grasberg reaches its 80% path on schedule, while Q3 gold sales were cut to 100,000 ounces from 160,000 and costs rose. That keeps me below their volumes. It does not move me, because even at their volumes and mine the stock sits within about 10% of $71, so Hold holds. Muse's 6 times EBITDA method (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) ignores the $4.8 billion of 2027 capital spending. Grok's 15.5 times is reasonable, but I think 18 times fits a long-lived copper franchise. No new fact since my note justifies a change.
