RASONQUE is a real advance in pancreatic cancer, but $193.80 needs about $4.4 billion of 2028 sales. I see $2.3 billion, worth $107.01, a strong sell.
Key points
- $41.5 billion market value at $193.80 prices a flawless paid launch after the August 2026 approval.
- $39,800 monthly list price with about five months of use caps revenue per patient.
- $2.2 billion of 2026 operating costs keeps cash burn high while paid scripts ramp.
The call
The market is too optimistic about paid launch speed. At $193.80, the stock needs about $4.4 billion of 2028 sales at 10 times sales, almost double what patient math allows.
Approval run tripled the stock in twelve monthsMonthly closes Oct 2025 to Oct 2026 via Rallies market data.
Free supply flatters early demand, with over 2,000 patients served before approval. I see 8,550 United States patients on drug in 2028, or 45 percent of 19,000 eligible, at net pricing near $32,600 per month after discounts.
Valuation
| Step | Figure |
|---|
| United States net sales in 2028 | $1.5 billion |
| Total net sales in 2028 | $2.3 billion |
| Enterprise value at 10 times sales | $23.0 billion |
| Plus net cash near $3.0 billion | $26.0 billion equity |
| Divided by 242.5 million diluted shares | $107.01 a share |
Even strong share leaves sales near $1.5 billionMy math from $39,800 list and 82 pct net, 5.5 months, 19,000 patients.
Ten times 2028 sales fits a fast grower with no profit yet, a simple sales multiple (company value divided by yearly sales). Dilution from options, units, converts and warrants is counted. The 45 percent gap to $193.80 supports a strong sell.
Risks
- Paid uptake beats my 45 percent share if community clinics adopt fast, which I would see in reported paid scripts in November 2026.
- First-line pancreatic trials win and pull forward multi-billion sales, which I would see in 2027 press releases for RASolute 303, 305 and 309.
- Lung combination data extends the franchise and lifts what buyers pay for sales, which I would see in RASolve readouts and slides in 2027.
What would change my mind
Paid quarterly net sales above $300 million with steady refills in early 2027 would show my uptake math is too low.