RBC should earn about C$17.44 a share in fiscal 2027. At 16 times that in U.S. dollars the stock is worth $196, close to today’s $191.
Key points
- C$17.44 is my fiscal 2027 diluted EPS, 7% above a C$16.30 fiscal 2026 run-rate.
- 16 times that EPS in U.S. dollars, at C$1.43 per U.S. dollar, gives a $196 twelve-month target.
- 3.2 times July book of C$84.13 is what the U.S. listing pays today for 18% ROE.
The call
The U.S. listing at $191 implies about 17 times trailing C$15.87 of earnings and 3.2 times book. That multiple only holds if fiscal 2027 EPS reaches the high teens in Canadian dollars and credit stays ordinary.
I expect mid-single-digit net interest income, wealth and capital-markets fees, and buybacks to lift EPS 7% after a C$16.30 fiscal 2026. That path is real, but it is what 16 times next year’s earnings already requires, so the stock should track the market.
Diluted EPS (C$ per share)RBC reports and own FY26–FY27E; source Q3 2026 report, Oct 8 2026
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| Fiscal 2026E diluted EPS | C$16.30 |
| Fiscal 2027E diluted EPS | C$17.44 |
| FX (CAD per USD, Oct 7) | 1.43 |
| Fiscal 2027E EPS in USD | $12.23 |
| Multiple | 16 times |
| 12-month target | $195.73 |
Sixteen times is a shade below the 17 times trailing multiple because Canadian loan growth and HSBC accretion both slow. Upside if I am right is a few percent plus a 2.6% U.S. dollar dividend; downside if credit or FX slips is larger, which is why this is a hold, not a buy.
Q3 2026 revenue mixShare of Q3 revenue; RBC Q3 2026 statements, Aug 27 2026
Risks
- Impaired losses above the guided range would cut EPS and the multiple together; watch the 35 bp impaired ratio next quarter.
- A stronger U.S. dollar versus the Canadian dollar reduces the NYSE price even if CAD earnings hold.
- Deposit-price competition could stall net interest income; watch advertised GIC and five-year mortgage quotes versus the 5-year Canada yield.
What would change my mind
A clean fiscal 2026 print above C$16.50 with CET1 still near 13% and stable provisions would justify 17 times and a buy.