Fourth-quarter guidance and buybacks leave 2027 earnings near $20.40 a share. Eleven times that is $224, a market-like return from $215 including the dividend.
Key points
- $5.04 GAAP diluted EPS in the September quarter on $1.793 billion of net interest income.
- $1.83, $1.85 billion taxable-equivalent NII guided for the December quarter, with NIM in the mid-3.60s.
- $20.40 of 2027 earnings is my estimate at 11 times, a $224 share.
The call
The $215 share already needs about 11 times my $19.50 of 2026 earnings. That multiple is in line with large regional banks after the recent pullback. Deposit costs rose 10 basis points and expenses climbed, so the print did not expand the multiple.
I model $20.40 of 2027 earnings on 4 percent NII growth, 37 basis points of charge-offs, and 140 million shares. Eleven times that is $224. The market is about right: loan growth funds the buybacks, but higher rates cap CRE and keep funding costs sticky.
Diluted EPS by quarter and my 2027 run-rateCompany releases through 3Q26; 4Q26E and 2027E are mine.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2026 EPS (my estimate) | $19.50 |
| 2027 EPS (my estimate) | $20.40 |
| Multiple on 2027 earnings | 11 times |
| 12-month target | $224 |
| Dividend over 12 months | $6.00 |
| Implied total return from $215 | about 7% |
Eleven times matches PNC and U.S. Bancorp on similar 2027 earnings. Upside is a faster NIM recovery; downside is a 40-basis-point charge-off run-rate that cuts $0.80 of EPS. That band is a hold, not a buy.
Net interest margin vs taxable-equivalent NIICompany releases, October 16 2026. NII in $ billions.
Risks
- Deposit costs keep rising with another hike; watch interest-bearing deposit cost versus 2.05%.
- CRE and office nonaccruals reverse the year-ago improvement; watch the 0.90% nonaccrual ratio.
- Software and professional spend stays above $1.40 billion a quarter; watch the 54.4% efficiency ratio.
What would change my mind
Four quarters of NIM at or above 3.70% with charge-offs under 30 basis points would support a higher multiple.