CrowdStrike is winning platform deals, yet $265 demands near perfection. I see 22% sales growth to $7.32B in FY28 supporting $215, 19% below the price.
Key points
- $5.84B in yearly contract value in July 2026 (ARR, the yearly value of subscriptions) shows demand stayed strong through July 2026.
- $377M in cash left after bills in the July 2026 quarter (free cash flow, cash after running the business) still leaves a rich cash price for fiscal 2027.
- 27.9M shares sold short in September 2026 (bets the stock falls) show doubt rising even near the $287 high in calendar 2026.
The call
This price leaves no room for error. Paying $265.36 a share in October 2026 needs about 128 times fiscal 2028 cash per share to stand still.
Revenue and cash flow keep growing ($ billions)- Revenue reported
- Mine
- Free cash flow
SEC XBRL and Aug 26 release; Q3-Q4 FY27E are author's estimates. As of Oct 8, 2026.
Growth will cool as renewals tighten. I see $7.32B in sales in fiscal 2028 on flexible deals that renew smaller, with $2.16B in cash left after bills in fiscal 2028.
Valuation
| Driver | Estimate |
|---|
| Sales in fiscal 2027 | $6.00B in fiscal 2027 |
| Sales in fiscal 2028 | $7.32B in fiscal 2028 |
| Cash left after bills in fiscal 2028 | $2.16B in fiscal 2028 |
| Shares in 12 months | 1.04B shares in October 2027 |
| Price paid per dollar of cash | 104 times fiscal 2028 cash |
| Target | $215 a share in October 2027 |
CrowdStrike needs a 128x cash-flow multiple to hold $265Author's FY28 FCF $2.16B on 1.04B shares; current price $265.36. Oct 8, 2026.
Top growers often fetch 60 times to 80 times cash. I pay 104 times fiscal 2028 cash for net cash and 25% growth. Down 19% to October 2027 beats holding, so I rate it Sell.
Risks
- Flexible deals renew smaller in fiscal 2028, which you would see in falling yearly contract value by January 2027.
- Lawsuits from the July 2024 outage grow in fiscal 2027, which you would see in higher legal costs by January 2027.
- Stock pay dilutes holders in fiscal 2027, which you would see in a rising share count by January 2027.
What would change my mind
I would turn positive if net new yearly contract value stays above $330M per quarter through fiscal 2027 without added discounts.