Micron guides $61.5 billion revenue and about $38 a share for the November quarter. At $1,087 the stock trades near 7 times annualized earnings. That prices lasting highs. We expect $160 a share and 6.5 times, so $1,040.
Key points
- $37.84 a share is guided GAAP profit for the quarter ending November 2026, on $61.5 billion revenue.
- 86% gross margin guided, up from 35% two years ago. Memory margins have never held at this level.
- $1,040 target, 4% below the price: fair for now, with wide outcomes.
The call
The price requires that this boom lasts. At $1,087 the stock is about 7 times the guided quarter annualized, roughly $151 a share. That assumes margins stay near 86% for years, not quarters.
Quarterly revenue ($ billions)Source: SEC filings, Micron Sept 30, 2026 release; Q1 FY27E is company guidance midpoint
We think the boom is real but the price already pays for it. Over 75% of fiscal 2027 shipments are committed, and management sees no line of sight to supply balancing. Still, price gains drove the surge, not volume. Memory has always turned when supply arrives.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| Guided quarter EPS (earnings per share), Nov 2026 | $37.84 |
| Our fiscal 2027 EPS estimate | $160 a share |
| Multiple on peak-cycle earnings | 6.5 times |
| Target (12 months) | $1,040 a share |
| Change from $1,086.74 | about -4% |
We use 6.5 times, not a market multiple, because earnings at an 86% gross margin are far above any past level, and memory stocks trade at low multiples near peaks. Our EPS sits near the guide plus modest further price gains. If EPS reaches $200 at 9 times, the stock is worth $1,800. If it falls to $80 at 6 times, it is worth $480. That is a wide range, and the middle is a hold.
Risks
- Supply catches up or customers cut orders. Watch the DRAM and NAND spot prices (now $58 for DDR5 16Gb) and guidance for the February quarter.
- Mobile and PC demand weakens as prices rise. Bit shipments there already fell sequentially; watch that segment's revenue.
- Taoyuan union strike (99% voted to authorize) or new litigation costs disrupt output. Watch for a strike date and for Micron's disclosures.
What would change my mind
Spot prices falling for two straight months would make me a seller, while a guide above $70 billion with margins still rising would make me a buyer.