Vistra at $156.78 needs about $8 billion of 2028 operating profit at 10 times to break even on our math. We expect that, so the stock should roughly track the market, helped by a conditional $4.2 billion nuclear loan.
Key points
- $170.45 twelve-month target, about 9% above $156.78, so Hold.
- $8.0 billion of 2028 adjusted EBITDA (operating profit before depreciation) is what we expect, up from a $7.2 billion 2026 midpoint.
- 10 times EV to EBITDA (company value over that profit) is the multiple we apply, against about 10 times 2026 today.
The call
The market already expects the power-demand story to arrive. The enterprise value (stock plus debt and preferred shares) is about $74 billion, or 10 times the 2026 guidance midpoint of $7.2 billion.
We agree on direction but not on a bigger gap. Profit rises to about $8.0 billion in 2028 on Cogentrix, PJM capacity and nuclear credits. ERCOT forward prices have eased, and the DOE loan is conditional.
Target price by 2028 EBITDA and multiple ($ a share)- EBITDA $7.6B
- EBITDA $8.2B
- EBITDA $8.8B
Analyst arithmetic; net debt $22.5B, preferred $2.0B, 325.6M shares. Price $156.78 on Oct 8, 2026
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2028 adjusted EBITDA | $8.0 billion |
| Multiple (EV to EBITDA) | 10 times |
| Enterprise value | $80 billion |
| Less net debt and preferred, end 2027 | $24.5 billion |
| Shares after Cogentrix and buybacks | 326 million |
| Value per share | $170.45 |
Ten times is fair for a fleet that is 94% hedged for 2027 and has signed nuclear contracts. Debt rises with Cogentrix and growth spending, which absorbs most of the profit growth. Upside of 9% sits inside the hold band, and the 12-month range of $133 to $217 is wide.
Risks
- ERCOT power prices keep falling; watch forward curves and the 2027 hedged share of 94%.
- Large data-center load arrives late or Meta-style contracts disappoint; watch the November 6 results and new contract news.
- DOE loan terms or the Cogentrix closing slip, or Moss Landing costs grow; watch filings and debt rising above 3 times EBITDA.
What would change my mind
A raised 2027 outlook above $7.8 billion with new priced contracts would move me to Buy, while another cut to Texas forwards would move me to Sell.