Exxon earns peak profit on disrupted refining and $114 Brent crude. Normal margins and output point to $128.25 per share, 22% below $164.05.
Key points
- $14.9 billion of net income in Q2 FY26 was nearly double any quarter of the prior year.
- $164.05 per share on Oct 7 2026 values Exxon at 11.7 times profit based on that quarter.
- $9.50 per share is my 2027 profit estimate as fuel margins cool and output returns.
The call
The price assumes the spike lasts. At a normal 13.5 times multiple it needs about $12.15 of lasting yearly profit per share in 2027. That math supports $164.05 per share only if the quarter repeats.
Quarterly net income shows Q2 spike ($ billions)Rallies filing history to Q2 FY26, retrieved Oct 8 2026.
Profits will fade instead. Fuel profit sits far above its 2010 to 2019 range today. My target is $128.25 per share in Oct 2027 on $9.50 of 2027 profit per share.
Valuation
| Driver | Figure |
|---|
| 2027 profit estimate | $9.50 per share |
| Target multiple | 13.5 times |
| Implied equity value | $128.25 per share |
| Current price for comparison | $164.05 per share |
| Dividend yield for context | 2.5% over the last 12 months |
A 13.5 times multiple fits a large oil company that pumps and refines in a normal year in 2027. It matches past average earning power. Downside of 21.8% to Oct 2027 with little cushion supports a sell.
What the stock is worth at different profit levels ($)Author estimates from briefing figures, Oct 8 2026.
Risks
- Crude holds near $114 per barrel Brent in Sep 2026 and upstream profit stays high, which I would see in quarterly upstream earnings and cash flow.
- Fuel shortages persist into 2027 and refining profit stays wide, which I would see in Gulf Coast margins and Energy Products earnings.
- Guyana growth beats plan after the fifth vessel starts in Q4 FY26, which I would see in Permian and Guyana volumes.
What would change my mind
If profit near a $14.00 yearly pace per share held through mid 2027, the higher run rate would be lasting rather than peak.