Falling property and reinsurance prices keep 2027 adjusted earnings near $11.40 a share. At 18 times that is a $204 stock, a market-like return from $187.
Key points
- 5% underlying revenue growth in the September quarter, with reinsurance down 6%.
- $10.50 of 2026 adjusted EPS on my math, after $8.29 in the first nine months.
- 18 times my $11.40 of 2027 adjusted EPS produces a $204 target.
The call
The $187 share price needs about $10.40 of 2027 earnings at 18 times, which already assumes mid-single-digit organic growth and modest Thrive margin lift. Global commercial rates fell 5% in the third quarter.
I model $11.40 instead because consulting and new risk business offset rate pressure, while Thrive’s extra $200 million of savings is largely reinvested. That is not enough to re-rate the multiple.
Underlying revenue growth vs reported revenue- Reported growth
- Underlying (company)
Marsh 10-Q and earnings release, Oct 15 2026. E is my forecast.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
| 2026 revenue (my estimate) | $28.9 billion |
| 2027 revenue growth | 6% |
| 2027 adjusted EPS (mine) | $11.40 |
| Multiple | 18 times |
| 12-month target | $204 |
Eighteen times is a brokerage-cycle multiple, not a compounder premium, while rates stay soft. Upside is extra Thrive retained earnings; downside is another year of reinsurance decline. The 9% gap from $187 is a market-like return, hence hold.
Adjusted EPS history and my 2027 estimateCompany adjusted EPS from earnings releases; 2027E is mine.
Risks
- Reinsurance January renewals cut commissions further; watch Guy Carpenter (now Reinsurance) underlying growth in Q4.
- Thrive costs of $750 million overrun savings; watch noteworthy items versus the $600 million target.
- Consulting success fees reverse; watch Oliver Wyman (Management Consulting) sequential revenue in Q4.
What would change my mind
Two consecutive quarters of 7% or better underlying Risk growth with retained Thrive savings.