Kimberly-Clark trades at $104 with flat sales and a pending deal that adds 281 million shares. I see $6.70 of 2027 combined profit worth 16 times, or $107.20, so I rate it hold.
Key points
- $6.70 of 2027 combined profit after new debt cost and first year savings drives the target.
- 281 million new shares lift the count to about 613 million and make dilution the near term story.
- 1.3% organic sales decline in prelim Q3 shows flat tissue demand and China pressure persist.
The call
The market is about right to wait. At $104.10 the stock needs about $6.50 of combined profit at a normal staple multiple. That leaves little room if volumes stay soft and deal costs linger.
Quarterly sales stuck near $4.1 billion ($ billions)- Reported sales
- My estimate
SEC XBRL facts and Oct 15 prelim 8-K. As of Oct 15, 2026.
I see a slower start instead. I forecast $6.70 of 2027 combined profit after interest and first year savings. With 613 million shares and flat tissue demand, 16 times is fair and upside is thin.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2027 combined sales | $32.5 billion |
| 2027 combined adjusted EPS | $6.70 |
| Target multiple | 16 times |
| Dividend yield at price | 4.9% |
| 12 month target | $107.20 |
A 16 multiple fits a slow growth staple with higher leverage and a 4.9% yield. At $107.20 the upside is about 3% plus the dividend. The reward is small until synergies prove out, so hold fits the asymmetry.
Risks
- Volumes stay weak if low income shoppers trade to private label, which you would see in negative mix and higher promotion in scanner data.
- Kenvue deal slips or remedies widen, which you would see in delayed close filings and revised financing terms.
- Input costs rebound in pulp and oil linked materials, which you would see in gross margin (sales minus factory cost) falling below 36%.
What would change my mind
Faster synergy capture or renewed volume growth lifting 2027 profit clearly above $7.00 would turn me more positive.
