Prologis earned $1.60 a share of cash profit last quarter on strong rent resets. At $126.94 I see 8% upside to $137 plus a 3.4% dividend, so I rate it hold.
Key points
- $1.60 a share for this quarter of cash profit, the landlord recurring earnings, up 7% from last year on higher rents.
- 38.0% rent gain for this quarter on renewed leases net effective, meaning with free rent spread out, shows pricing power.
- £14.0 billion deal for next year to buy a British rival adds scale but adds new shares and debt.
The call
The market is roughly right to pause. At $126.94 a share today the stock trades at 20.2 times cash profit, the landlord recurring earnings, this year. That multiple needs about $6.19 a share next year to hold.
Quarterly revenue keeps grinding higher ($ billions)- Reported revenue
- Mine (Q4E)
SEC filings and Oct 15 2026 release; Q4 FY26E is author's estimate.
I see a little more growth ahead. I forecast $6.70 a share of cash profit next year on higher renewed rents. At 20.5 times that forecast for next year, or price divided by profit, the shares are worth $137 a share in twelve months.
Valuation
| Measure | Value |
|---|
| Cash profit guidance this year | $6.27 a share for 2026 |
| Cash profit estimate next year | $6.70 a share for 2027 |
| Target multiple next year | 20.5 times cash profit for 2027 |
| Annual dividend this year | $4.28 a share for 2026 |
| Twelve month target | $137 a share in twelve months |
A 20.5 times multiple fits a top warehouse landlord growing fast this year. Upside to $137 a share in twelve months is 7.9% for twelve months on price alone. That mild return with a 3.4% dividend yield for this year is a hold, not a buy.
Core cash profit holds near $1.60 a shareOct 15 2026 supplemental plus Jul 16 2026 release; Q4 FY26E is author's estimate.
Risks
- Market rents stall if United States vacancy rises above 7.2% seen this year; watch quarterly occupancy and retention in releases.
- The British deal dilutes more or adds more debt next year; watch final share count and loan drawings in filings.
- High long rates cut property values this year; watch long term borrowing costs and sale prices in supplements.
What would change my mind
Faster lease growth lifting cash profit above $7.00 a share for next year or a drop toward $117 a share today would make the shares a buy.