BlackRock posted record revenue and 38% profit growth on $205 billion of inflows. At $1,073.79, the mix shift to private markets and tech is undervalued, pointing to $1,300.
Key points
- $205 billion last quarter of net inflows drove 11% yearly organic fee growth.
- $15.93 last quarter of adjusted profit a share rose 38% yearly on record revenue.
- $15.5 trillion at quarter end of client assets tilts to private markets and tech.
The call
The market still treats BlackRock as a market tracker. The stock is $1,073.79 today. That is 16.5 times my $65.00 of next year profit.
Quarterly revenue keeps climbing ($ billions)SEC filings through Q2 2026 plus Oct 14 2026 release and author estimate.
I see a steadier compounder worth more. Private markets were 11% of recurring fees last quarter on 2% of assets. Tech contract value grew 12% last quarter while active inflows hit $66 billion.
Recurring fees carry the quarter ($ billions)Oct 14 2026 earnings release, page 3.
Valuation
| Driver | Estimate |
|---|
| 2026 revenue | $29.4 billion in 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted profit | $58.51 a share in 2026 |
| 2027 adjusted profit | $65.00 a share in 2027 |
| Multiple | 20 times in 2027 |
| Target | $1,300.00 a share in 12 months |
A 20 times multiple in 2027 fits durable double digit growth. It sits below past peaks near 22 times. Upside of 21% to target supports a buy.
Risks
- A market fall cuts fees on client assets, seen in monthly average assets and fee rate.
- Private deals disappoint on fundraising or loan losses, seen in deployment and HPS bonuses.
- Fee pressure persists and index mandates leave, seen in low fee outflows and monthly ETF shares.
What would change my mind
Organic fee growth stuck below 5% yearly for two quarters while tech contract value slows to single digits would break the mix shift story.