Guidance of $12 this year and Calpine plus capacity support about $13 next year. At 22 times that figure the stock belongs near $286, a market-like return from $285.
Key points
- $12.00 is the midpoint of 2026 adjusted operating EPS after the August raise to $11.50, $12.50.
- $13.00 is my 2027 estimate: about 8% growth from that midpoint as Calpine, PJM capacity and buybacks offset extra outage and integration costs.
- 22 times that $13.00 lands at $286, 0.3% above today’s $285.01.
The call
The shares need roughly 22 times 2027 earnings of $13 to hold $285. That is a premium multiple for a generator whose GAAP profit still swings with hedges, outages and purchase accounting.
I expect that $13, not a jump that would justify a richer multiple. Google and Amazon contracts start in 2028, 2032 and do not lift 2027 cash. The market is about right.
Adjusted operating EPS, reported and my 2027 view- Reported / guidance
- My 2027 estimate
Company releases through Aug 6, 2026; 2026E is guidance midpoint; 2027E is mine.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2026 adjusted EPS (guidance midpoint) | $12.00 a share |
| My 2027 adjusted EPS | $13.00 a share |
| Multiple on 2027 EPS | 22 times |
| 12-month target | $286 a share |
| Implied return vs $285.01 | +0.3% |
Twenty-two times is what a clean-power compounder with visible capacity receipts can keep, not a data-center lottery ticket. Asymmetry is small: being right pays a market return; being wrong on policy or outages costs more than being too cautious.
Risks
- PJM or FERC redesigns capacity or large-load rules and cuts receipts; watch year-end reliability-backstop results.
- Nuclear outages or Calpine forced-outage factor rise above the 6.2% June print; watch NRC status and the next 10-Q KPI table.
- Contract economics disappoint when first MW come online; watch 2027 Crane restart and any disclosed PPA prices.
What would change my mind
A 2027 guide above $14.00 with disclosed PPA prices that clearly beat the production-tax-credit floor would push the multiple and the target.