Venture Global trades at 8.1 times 2026 cash profit with Plaquemines near contract switch and a new $17.2 billion power plan. I see $10.2 billion of 2027 cash profit and $13.03 value, so I stay at hold.
Key points
- $6.79 per MMBtu in Q3 2026 was the fee for freezing gas into LNG on 465.8 heat units sold.
- $8.9 billion of 2026 guidance for cash profit centers this year on high priced commissioning sales.
- $17.2 billion of conditional gear in Oct 2026 for power islands adds scope with no customer yet.
The call
The price looks fair for the LNG ramp. At $12.51 per share, equity is worth $33.1 billion. Adding $38.7 billion of net debt gives $71.8 billion of firm value, or equity plus debt less cash. That is 8.1 times the $8.9 billion midpoint of 2026 guidance.
Quarterly revenue plateaus as contracts replace spot sales- Reported revenue
- My forecast
SEC XBRL facts through Q2 FY26; Q3-Q4 FY26E author estimates. As of Oct 15, 2026.
I see little upside because leverage caps equity. I expect $10.2 billion of cash profit in 2027 as volumes grow while fees step down to contract levels. The $17.2 billion power plan adds scope without a customer or funding. At 7.5 times firm value, the shares track the market.
Valuation
| Driver to target | Figure |
|---|
| 2027 cash profit | $10.2 billion |
| Firm value multiple | 7.5 times |
| Firm value | $76.5 billion |
| Less forward net debt | $42.0 billion |
| Target in 12 months | $13.03 a share |
Target value swings hard with 2027 cash profitAuthor arithmetic at 7.5x EV to EBITDA less 42.0B net debt over 2.65B shares. Oct 15 2026.
I use 7.5 times for high debt and legal risk. The $13.03 target in Oct 2027 implies 4.2% upside plus a small dividend. That asymmetry fits a hold.
Risks
- Spot freeze fees could fall and cut commissioning profit in 2027. I would watch monthly European gas prices for weakness.
- Plaquemines Phase 1 contract start could slip past late 2026. I would watch regulator approvals and Nov 2026 earnings remarks.
- Power orders could bind cash before data center deals exist in 2027. I would watch reservation fees and first orders in late 2026.
What would change my mind
I would turn positive if Plaquemines hits contract operations on time in late 2026 and 2027 cash profit clears $11.0 billion with separate funding for power.