PNC can earn about $20.70 a share in 2027 as loans reprice. At eleven times that is $228, a market-like return from $215 including the dividend.
Key points
- $4.97 GAAP EPS in the September quarter, $5.09 adjusted, on $2.10 billion of net income.
- 13.5% full-year average loan growth now guided, with NII up about 15.5% versus 2025.
- 11 times my $20.70 of 2027 earnings produces a $228 target, 6% above $214.94 plus a 3.7% dividend.
The call
The $215 share price needs about $19.50 of 2027 earnings at eleven times, or $20.50 at 10.5 times. Tangible book is $108, so the stock also trades at two times book after the AOCI hit from higher rates.
I model $19.30 of 2026 earnings and $20.70 in 2027 as FirstBank annualizes, securities reprice, and loan growth cools from 13% to mid-single digits. Eleven times that run-rate is $228. The market is about right: it is not paying for a rerating, and it is not ignoring the NII path.
Diluted EPS by quarter and my 2027 run-rateReported GAAP EPS through Q3 2026; Q4 2026E and 2027E are mine. Source: PNC supplements, Oct 15 2026.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2026E diluted EPS | $19.30 |
| 2027E diluted EPS | $20.70 |
| Multiple | 11 times |
| 12-month target | $228 |
| Dividend (next 12 months) | $8.00 |
| Implied total return | about 10% |
Eleven times sits near the stock’s recent band for a large regional bank with 18% return on tangible equity and CET1 at 9.8%. Being right on earnings and the multiple staying 10.5 to 11.5 times still leaves a market-like outcome. A 13 times rerating needs rates and credit both to surprise the right way, which is not the base case.
Risks
- Deposit costs keep rising with the two extra Fed hikes management now expects, capping NII.
- Office and one large commercial credit pull more loans into nonperformance than the $5.4 billion allowance covers.
- CET1 stays near 9.8% if AOCI worsens, slowing the $0.6 billion quarterly buyback.
What would change my mind
Four quarters of NIM above 3.1% with charge-offs staying near 25 basis points would justify twelve times and a higher target.