Regeneron trades too cheap for Dupixent durability and a $15 billion cash pile. My $935 target sees 26.5% upside on $55 of 2027 earnings at 17 times.
Key points
- $15.1 billion net cash in June 2026 backs research spending through patent fights.
- 51% of Q2 2026 sales came from the Sanofi profit share, mostly the Dupixent immune drug.
- 60% of Q2 2026 US eye sales already came from the higher dose Eylea HD version.
The call
The market is too gloomy. Shares at $739.13 on Oct 8 2026 value the business at about 13 times $47.03 trailing earnings per share for four quarters to June 2026 after cash. That math implies near zero profit growth as cheap copies spread.
Quarterly revenue jumps as Sanofi deduction ends ($ billions)SEC XBRL facts to Q2 2026; Q3-Q4 2026 are my estimates. As of Oct 8 2026.
Dupixent can grow faster than fear allows. I expect $17.50 billion sales in 2027 and $55.00 earnings per share in 2027 as the Sanofi cost deduction ends and Libtayo cancer sales rise. Biosimilars (near copies of biologic drugs) hurt the old eye drug but the shift to HD protects cash.
Valuation
| Driver | Figure |
|---|
| 2027 revenue | $17.50 billion |
| 2027 non-GAAP earnings per share (profit excluding stock pay and one-offs) | $55.00 |
| Target multiple | 17 times |
| 12-month target price | $935.00 |
| Upside from $739.13 on Oct 8 2026 | 26.5% |
Large immune and cancer drugs with net cash deserve a market multiple. At 17 times 2027 earnings the target pays for Dupixent durability. Cash of $149 per share in June 2026 limits downside if trials fail.
Half of sales comes from the Sanofi profit shareJuly 30 2026 10-Q MD&A revenue table, Q2 2026. As of Oct 8 2026.
Risks
- Eye biosimilars cut price faster than HD conversion, visible in monthly Eylea unit demand and net price in 2027.
- Dupixent growth slows as new uses annualize, visible in Sanofi-reported worldwide sales each quarter in 2027.
- Pipeline setbacks add cost without sales, visible in R&D above $6.64 billion in 2026 and trial stops in 2027.
What would change my mind
Q3 2026 results on Oct 30 2026 showing no lift from the ended Sanofi deduction would break the earnings step-up case.