At $214.96, Accenture trades near 15 times its FY27 earnings guide, with a 9% free cash flow yield. That price already assumes the slow growth management promised. I see $236 in 12 months, about 10% upside plus a 3% dividend.
Key points
- 15 times management's FY27 earnings guide of $14.39 to $14.81 a share, against more than 20 times a year ago.
- 3% to 6% FY27 local-currency revenue growth guided, about 2 points of it bought through acquisitions.
- $9.5 billion or more of FY27 buybacks and dividends, about 7% of the company's market value.
The call
The price expects a slow grower that hangs on, not one in decline. A free cash flow yield near 9% works out to roughly 1% long-run growth at a 9.5% required return. The 82% rally from June's $118 low paid investors back for the 7% fourth-quarter beat and the Investor Day targets.
Quarterly revenue ($ billions): reported and my FY27 estimates- Reported revenue
- My estimate
Source: SEC filings and Oct 1, 2026 release; FY27E are desk estimates at about 4.5% growth
I think the business does slightly better than the price assumes, but not by enough to call it a buy. Bookings ran 1.2 times revenue last quarter. Revenue per person is rising, which suggests AI is adding scope rather than shrinking it. Against that, pricing fell in many areas in the fourth quarter, and organic growth for FY27 is only 1% to 4%.
Valuation
| Step | Figure |
|---|
| FY27 earnings per share, near guidance midpoint | $14.60 |
| FY28 growth: 5% revenue, slight margin gain, buybacks | 8% |
| FY28 earnings per share | $15.76 |
| Multiple | 15 times |
| 12-month target | $236.41 |
Fifteen times is today's multiple. It rises only once organic growth proves it can beat 4%, and that evidence arrives with January and February budget cycles. Each turn of multiple moves the target about $16, so the risk is balanced and the dividend adds 3%. That is a hold.
Price in 12 months at each multiple of my FY28 EPS of $15.76Desk arithmetic, October 14, 2026; price $214.96
Risks
- AI shrinks renewals faster than new work offsets it; watch consulting book-to-bill falling below 1.0 in the December quarter.
- Price cuts deepen; watch for FY27 margin guidance of 15.9% to 16.1% slipping at the December 17 report.
- Acquisitions of $8 billion hide weaker organic growth; watch whether local-currency growth falls toward 2% excluding deals.
What would change my mind
Organic growth above 5% with stable pricing by March would earn a higher multiple and a buy. A consulting book-to-bill below 1.0 for two quarters would make it a sell.