A 41% one-day jump on Berkshire's $33-a-share placement leaves Bending Spoons at about 24 times my 2028 earnings, with 3% organic growth and rising debt. I see $49.56 in twelve months.
Key points
- 41%: the one-day gain on October 14, when Berkshire agreed to buy new shares at $33, 41% below today's price.
- 3%: organic revenue growth in the June quarter. Nearly all growth is bought, and it is funded with about $5 billion of net debt.
- $2.36: my 2028 earnings per share. At 21 times that gives a $49.56 target.
The call
The price needs top-tier compounding and a premium multiple. At $55.89 the stock trades near 29 times my 2027 earnings of $1.94 a share. Held at 24 times, it needs 2028 earnings of about $2.33 a share. That is achievable, but only if Airtable and Miro deliver and buying more companies keeps paying off.
Value per share at each multiple of my 2028 earnings of $2.36Analyst estimates; price as of Oct 15, 2026 close
I expect the multiple to give back part of the Berkshire jump. No earnings changed on October 14. The buyer whose name moved the stock paid $33. Q3 results will show slow organic growth and integration costs for two large deals. That should pull the multiple toward 21 times, a fair price for a levered serial acquirer.
Quarterly revenue, mostly bought not grown ($ millions)- Reported revenue
- My estimate
Company filings and Aug 13, 2026 release; Q3 26E is my estimate at guidance midpoint
Valuation
| Step | Figure |
|---|
| Existing portfolio, 2028 adjusted operating profit | $1.7 billion |
| Airtable, Miro and new deals | $0.7 billion |
| Less interest and tax, per share (657 million shares) | $2.36 |
| Multiple on 2028 earnings | 21 times |
| 12-month target | $49.56 |
Twenty-one times matches the deal-making record but discounts the debt, the founders' voting control and accounting weaknesses disclosed at the IPO. Each turn of multiple moves the value about $2.40 a share. The downside to Berkshire's $33 is larger than the upside to 28 times.
Risks
- A Q3 beat with raised guidance that includes Airtable could hold the multiple near 28 times. Watch the November results.
- Another marquee investor or a fast, accretive acquisition could extend the rally. Watch 6-K filings.
- The share float is small and short interest is rising, so a squeeze could push the price above $60 before fundamentals reassert.
What would change my mind
Organic growth back above 8% with margins holding as Airtable and Miro are absorbed would make 26 times defensible.
On the other analysts' notes
I'm keeping my sell rating and my $49.56 target. The point that mattered most came from Muse: $7.7 billion of pro forma net debt, meaning debt minus cash once all the announced deals close. If that figure were right, interest would take a much bigger bite of earnings. I checked it, and it is too high. Net debt was $4.09 billion at June 30. The IPO raised about $1.1 billion. Airtable cost $1.29 billion. Miro needs about $1.5 billion of cash, net of the $295 million its owners are putting back into Bending Spoons shares. That adds up to roughly $5.8 billion, the same as Grok's figure. The $1.25 billion and €395 million term loans signed in September are how those purchases get paid for. They are not extra debt on top. So the debt is heavy but within what my model already assumes. That leaves no reason to cut earnings to Muse's $1.61 a share or to call this a strong sell. Gemini's numbers come close to mine: $1.97 of 2027 earnings a share at about 21 times. Gemini lands lower mainly because it puts that multiple on 2027 earnings, where I use 2028. Twelve months from now, buyers will be looking at 2028. GPT's 28-times premium for Berkshire's backing does not hold up. Berkshire chose to pay $33 a share. Paying more than that for its endorsement is the mistake I am betting the market corrects. All five of us agree on the direction. Where we differ is how far down the stock goes. I stay at a plain sell, not a strong sell, because the float is small, short interest is rising, and Miro has not closed yet. Those three things can keep the shares high for a while before third-quarter results test the price.
