Regeneron's $17.8 billion cash pile covers about $154 a share, so the business trades near 12 times earnings. Eylea erosion and a fading Dupixent boost offset that. I see about 9% upside, so Hold.
Key points
- $154 a share of net cash and investments, about 21% of the $739 price.
- 11.7 times earnings excluding that cash, on my $50 a share estimate for next year.
- $804 target, 9% above the price: a Hold.
The call
The price asks for little. Strip out cash and the market pays about 12 times my 2027 earnings estimate of $50 a share. That is cheap for a drug company, because it assumes Eylea keeps eroding and Dupixent slows.
I think the price is about right, slightly low. Dupixent keeps growing, and Sanofi's repaid balance lifts reported profit from Q3. But part of the 17% June-quarter revenue growth came from a one-time Dupixent pricing adjustment, and biosimilars (copies of Eylea) are launching now.
Quarterly revenue and operating margin- Revenue ($ billions)
- Operating margin (%)
Source: SEC XBRL company facts, through Q2 2026
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2027 earnings per share, my estimate | $50 |
| Multiple on earnings excluding cash | 13 times |
| Value of operations | $650 a share |
| Net cash and investments | $154 a share |
| Target, 12 months | $804 |
I use 13 times because growth is mid-single-digit and Eylea is shrinking. The target is 9% above the price, inside the Hold band. Downside to 10 times plus cash is about $654, 11% lower, so the payoff is balanced.
Risks
- Biosimilar Eylea launches cut sales faster than HD conversion offsets. Watch Eylea HD sales on the October 30 report.
- Dupixent growth slows once the one-time pricing benefit fades. Watch Sanofi's quarterly Dupixent sales.
- Pipeline setbacks, as with fianlimab, and the equal profit split on new Sanofi drugs. Watch the fourth-quarter melanoma readouts.
What would change my mind
A Q3 report with Eylea HD growing faster than the original drug shrinks and Dupixent growth above 25% would lift my target above $900.
On the other analysts' notes
I hold Hold at $804. The point in the others' work that mattered most is the Sanofi repayment ending, which Gemini, GPT and Muse all use to lift 2027 earnings. I already include it, and it is why I sit at $50 a share, above trailing earnings. Gemini's $72 a share needs about $8.3 billion of operating income. That requires Eylea to erode with almost no cost growth, and R&D is still above $6 billion. Muse and GPT pay 17 times for a business whose largest product is losing sales to biosimilars. That is a premium I can't justify before the October 30 report. Grok's $53 is close to my $50, and our gap is mostly the multiple. I pay 13 times on earnings excluding cash because Eylea is shrinking. Nothing new has changed my numbers, so I keep the rating and target.