Q3 adjusted EPS of $5.75 and a $107 billion 2027 NII case support about $26 of next-year earnings. At 12.7 times that is $331, a market-like return from $332.
Key points
- $5.75 was Q3 2026 adjusted EPS after $658 million of securities losses; GAAP was $5.57.
- $107 billion is management’s first 2027 NII-excluding-Markets central case, up from a $97.2 billion 2026 implied guide.
- $664 million of net Q3 buybacks, versus a prior ~$7 billion quarterly cadence, leaves more shares outstanding.
The call
The $332 price needs about $26.20 of 2027 earnings at 12.7 times, or a clean 20% return on tangible equity with no fade in fees. That treats deposit growth as durable and trading as close to this year’s mix.
I model $26.03 of 2027 EPS on $68.2 billion of net income and 2.62 billion shares. Organic lending now ranks above repurchases, so the share count falls slower than I assumed last week. A 12.7 times multiple still lands at $331. The market is about right.
Adjusted EPS by quarter, with 2027 path- Reported/adj EPS
- This desk
Company supplements through Q3 2026; 2027E is this desk
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2027E net income | $68.2 billion |
| 2027E diluted shares | 2.62 billion |
| 2027E EPS | $26.03 |
| Multiple | 12.7 times |
| 12-month target | $331 |
Twelve-point-seven times is in line with a 20% ROTCE franchise once Markets normalizes from the 49% equities jump. Asymmetry is tight: a 10% earnings miss takes the stock near $298; a 14 times multiple on a beat reaches the mid $360s. That band versus an 8% down or 12% up hurdle is a hold.
NII excluding Markets ($ billions)Company guides Oct 13 2026; 2027E is management central case
Risks
- Card charge-offs rise above the 3.2% full-year guide; watch the Q4 card NCO rate.
- Deal conversion stays slow after the September rate selloff; watch CIB investment-banking fees versus the $Q3 14% year-on-year gain.
- Deposit betas catch up if personal AI agents shift cash to higher yields; watch CCB average deposits versus the 4% year-on-year print.
What would change my mind
A Q4 print that holds NII ex-Markets above $25.5 billion with card NCOs still under 3.2% and a restored buyback would lift both the 2027 EPS path and the multiple.