Sanofi repayment is done and Dupixent still grows. At 16 times 2027 earnings of $53 the shares belong near $845, about 14% above $739.
Key points
- $6.0 billion Dupixent worldwide sales in Q2 2026, up 38% as reported by Sanofi.
- $1.0 billion Sanofi cash up front on October 1 for four long-acting antibodies; reimbursement deductions have ended.
- 14 times 2027 earnings of $53 is what $739 requires; I use 16 times.
The call
The price needs about $53 of 2027 earnings at a 14 times multiple. That is a 9% lift from trailing net income of $4.33 billion on a shrinking share count, with operating margin stuck near 25% as R&D stays above $6 billion.
I expect $18.1 billion of 2027 sales and $5.45 billion of net income, or $53 a share on 103.5 million diluted shares. Dupixent profit share, the end of Sanofi repayments, and HD conversion can deliver that. The market treats Eylea biosimilars as a franchise-wide cut; they mainly hit original Eylea.
Revenue by quarter ($ billions)SEC XBRL through Q2 2026; Q3-Q4 2026E and 2027E are mine
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2027 revenue (mine) | $18.1 billion |
| 2027 net income (mine) | $5.45 billion |
| Diluted shares | 103.5 million |
| 2027 EPS (mine) | $52.70 |
| Multiple | 16 times |
| 12-month target | $845 |
Sixteen times is a cash-rich large-cap drug multiple, not a growth premium. Net cash of about $146 a share supports it. If 2027 earnings miss by $5, the stock still holds near $760 at 16 times. The 14% gap to $739 is a buy, not a strong buy: pipeline readouts can cut the multiple.
Operating margin vs R&D spend- Operating margin %
- R&D $ billions
SEC company facts through June 2026
Risks
- Combined U.S. Eylea franchise falls faster than low-to-mid-teens sequential HD growth if more biosimilars price down HD.
- Dupixent second-half growth slows more than management’s “strong but moderating” language after the Q2 gross-to-net boost.
- November cemdisiran FDA decision or Q4 complement data disappoint and the multiple compresses to 13 times.
What would change my mind
A Q3 report that shows Dupixent worldwide growth below 20% or combined U.S. Eylea sales below $900 million.