Guided 2026 adjusted earnings of about $13.25 a share already sit at 5.8 times. I model $14.50 next year at the same multiple, an $84 stock, a market-like return including the dividend.
Key points
- $13.25 is the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance after today's raise.
- 5.8 times that figure is what $77.12 requires; I keep that multiple on 2027.
- $14.50 is my 2027 adjusted EPS after commodity pressure and about $6 billion of buybacks.
The call
The price already pays 5.8 times this year’s midpoint adjusted earnings of $13.25 a share. Automotive free cash flow of $11.5, 12.5 billion funds the new $20 billion repurchase plan, but it does not lift the multiple while trucks stay volume-flat.
I believe 2027 adjusted earnings reach about $14.50 a share, not a step-up that re-rates the stock. Mix, warranty and software help, but annualized commodity, logistics and memory costs of $1, 1.5 billion and a measured pickup launch cap the gain.
Revenue and operating income ($ billions)- Revenue
- GAAP operating income
- My 2027 adj EBIT
SEC XBRL through Q3 2026; 2026E and 2027E are mine.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2026 adjusted EPS (guidance mid) | $13.25 |
| 2027 adjusted EPS (mine) | $14.50 |
| Multiple on 2027 adjusted EPS | 5.8 times |
| 12-month target | $84 |
| Dividend over 12 months | $0.72 |
| Implied total return from $77.12 | about 10% |
Five-point-eight times is the same ratio the stock already applies to this year’s earnings. Auto cyclicals rarely stretch that ratio when industry demand is only mid-16 million units and pickup volume is planned flat. Asymmetry is modest: extra buybacks help a few dollars a share if cash holds; a commodity spike or a messy launch cuts more.
Adjusted EPS the price needs versus my path- Company adjusted EPS
- My adjusted EPS
Price $77.12 at 5.8 times 2026 mid-point adjusted EPS of $13.25.
Risks
- Commodity, steel, copper and DRAM stay elevated into 2027; watch sequential cost comments on the January call.
- New Silverado and Sierra launch downtime exceeds the planned 35,000-unit fourth-quarter hit; watch dealer inventory days.
- Warranty or EV cash payments run above the remaining ~$1.8 billion still to be paid.
What would change my mind
A 2027 EBIT-adjusted guide above $16 billion with pickup mix holding would support a higher multiple and a buy.