A $249 stock needs about 22 times 2026 earnings. I still model $11.35 of 2027 earnings after deal costs and a 21.5 times multiple, which is $244, a market-like return.
Key points
- $101.2 billion is the new 2026 sales midpoint after the October 13 raise of $100 million.
- $11.10 is the new 2026 adjusted EPS midpoint, up $0.06; I still use $11.35 for 2027 after extra deal dilution.
- 21.5 times that 2027 figure is the multiple that produces the $244 target.
The call
The $249.11 price requires 22.4 times the new 2026 adjusted earnings of $11.10 a share. That multiple only holds if 2027 earnings climb even after $1.36 of stated deal dilution and MedTech stays at 2.5% operational growth.
I still expect about $106.5 billion of 2027 sales and $11.35 of adjusted EPS. A 21.5 times multiple on that number is $244, about 2% below today’s price, a market-like return.
Quarterly sales ($ billions)- Reported sales
- My forecast
SEC XBRL through Q2 2026; Q3 2026 from Oct 13 8-K. 2026E and 2027E are mine.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2026 sales (new guide mid) | $101.2 billion |
| 2027 sales (my estimate) | $106.5 billion |
| 2027 adjusted EPS (mine) | $11.35 |
| Multiple | 21.5 times |
| 12-month target | $244 |
A 21.5 times multiple is what a 5% grower with a 3% free-cash-flow yield and remaining talc cash typically trades at. Asymmetry is modest: a 12% miss at 20 times is about $200; an 8% beat at 23 times is about $283. That band is a hold.
Immunology replacement: STELARA vs TREMFYA ($ millions)Oct 13 8-K product sales. STELARA -54% operational; TREMFYA +68%.
Risks
- STELARA erosion could outrun TREMFYA and ICOTYDE uptake; watch quarterly immunology sales.
- MedTech pulsed-field-ablation share loss and Abiomed volumes could stay weak; watch cardiovascular franchise sales.
- Talc participation could miss 95% and reopen cash timing; watch the 8-K on claim counts.
What would change my mind
A 2027 adjusted EPS guide above $12.00 with no further dilution, or a completed Orthopaedics sale at a high multiple.