EQT is a low cost Appalachian gas leader with useful power and LNG options. At $52.83 the stock needs lasting $3.10 gas, while I see $2.82 and $43.92 value. I rate it sell.
Key points
- $2.82 per Mcfe realized price in my 2027 base case, using a $3.28 strip less Appalachian discount, hedges and fees.
- $4.13 billion EBITDA for shareholders (profit before interest, tax and wear and tear) on 2,450 Bcfe of gas volumes.
- $43.92 target on $3.14 profit per share at 14 times, about 17% below the $52.83 price.
The call
At $52.83 the stock values EQT at $33.05 billion plus $5.55 billion net debt. That needs about $3.10 per Mcfe realized and $4.00 profit per share to hold 14 times. In plain words, gas must stay strong all winter.
I see a good operator facing soft math instead. Spot was $2.90 on Oct 9 with wide local discounts and $100 million of paper hedge gains in Q3. My $2.82 case gives $3.14 profit and $43.92. Power and LNG deals help after 2028, not next year.
Revenue and cash flow swing with gasSEC XBRL to Q2 FY26; Q3-Q4 FY26E are mine. Oct 14 2026.
Target needs strong gas to match priceMy math on 2450 Bcfe and 14x profit. Oct 14 2026.
Valuation
| Item | My estimate |
|---|
| 2027 sales volume | 2,450 Bcfe |
| Realized price | $2.82 per Mcfe |
| EBITDA for EQT holders | $4.13 billion |
| 2027 profit per share | $3.14 |
| Multiple | 14 times |
| 12-month target | $43.92 |
Fourteen times fits a low cost gas driller with debt and price swings. Mine and midstream cash owed to outside partners cuts the total. Upside needs $3.30 gas for $56.05, but weak $2.60 gas points to $34.39. That range favors a sell.
Risks
- Cold winter lifts gas above $4.00 and narrows local discounts, which I would see in weekly storage and EQT price updates.
- Compression gains cut sustaining wells and spending below $2.70 billion, which I would see in Q3 results Oct 27.
- Countercyclical buybacks of the $1.4 billion plan support the stock, which I would see in share count and cash.
What would change my mind
Proven tighter supply with realized prices above $3.10 through Q1 2027 without higher costs would lift my target above the price.