Guidance of $1.15 to $1.35 for fiscal 2027 is the new base. Lifestyle and China cleanup still hit fiscal 2028, so 18 times $1.60 of earnings next year is $29, below $34.71.
Key points
- $1.15 to $1.35: company fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS, excluding $0.15 of Pace charges.
- High-single-digit: fiscal 2027 revenue decline, with China assumed to worsen through May 2027.
- 18 times $1.60: my fiscal 2028 earnings and multiple, which produce a $29 target.
The call
The $34.71 price needs about $1.93 of fiscal 2028 earnings at 18 times, or a 22 times multiple on my $1.60. That treats the lifestyle reset as finished inside twelve months.
I believe fiscal 2028 earnings are $1.60, not $1.93. Sportswear, Jordan scarcity and China digital cleanup extend into fiscal 2028. Performance growth is real but still too small to offset those three. The market is too optimistic.
Nike revenue ($ billions)SEC filings through FY26; my FY27-FY28 estimates. As of Oct 8, 2026
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| Fiscal 2027 revenue (my estimate) | $42.7 billion |
| Fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS (guidance mid) | $1.25 |
| Fiscal 2028 EPS (my estimate) | $1.60 |
| Multiple on fiscal 2028 EPS | 18 times |
| 12-month target | $29 |
Eighteen times is a mid-cycle consumer multiple for a brand still shrinking. If I am right on $1.60, the stock is 16% too high. If earnings stall at $1.25, the loss is larger; if they rebound to $2.00, the stock is about fair.
Diluted EPS ($)GAAP through FY26; my FY27-28 estimates. Oct 8, 2026
Risks
- Performance running and football grow faster than I model and cover the lifestyle hole by mid-2027.
- China traffic recovers before multiple seasons of digital cleanup finish.
- Pace cash charges exceed $1 billion and force a dividend cut, collapsing the multiple.
What would change my mind
Fiscal 2027 revenue decline milder than high single digits and China sequential improvement by the February 2027 quarter.