Neutron’s first flight slipped into 2027 and cash still burns. At $55 the stock needs about 23 times 2027 sales; I model $1.32 billion of 2027 revenue at 16 times, a $38 share.
Key points
- $1.32 billion is my 2027 standalone sales, after the Neutron slip and no Iridium close until mid-year.
- 23 times those sales is what a $55.25 share and $3.5 billion of cash require.
- 16 times the same sales, plus cash, is a $38 stock.
The call
The price is too optimistic. It treats Neutron as a 2027 volume product and Space Systems as if it already earns a mature multiple, while the company still loses cash and reports operating losses.
I believe 2027 revenue is closer to $1.32 billion, Neutron contributes little until late in the year, and a 16-times sales multiple is enough for a still-unprofitable launcher. That is $38 a share.
Revenue by quarter ($ millions)SEC filings through Q2 2026; Q3–Q4 2026E and 2027E are mine
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| 2027 revenue (mine) | $1.32 billion |
| Sales multiple | 16 times |
| Enterprise value | $21.1 billion |
| Plus net cash | $3.5 billion |
| Shares | 645 million |
| 12-month target | $38 |
Sixteen times is a premium to defense primes and to still-lossy satellite names; it already pays for backlog growth. Asymmetry is poor: a successful Neutron debut might hold the multiple, a further slip or slower Space Systems mix cuts both sales and the multiple.
What $55.25 requires versus my 2027 sales multipleEnterprise value at 645 million shares and $3.5 billion net cash
Risks
- Neutron flies on time in early 2027 and books paid missions faster than I model.
- Space Systems mix holds 36% gross margin as satellite platforms scale.
- Iridium closes earlier and the market pays a combined-services premium.
What would change my mind
A dated Neutron pad delivery plus Q3 sales and margin above the August guide.